Abstract: The key challenge of managing Floating Production Storage and Offloading assets (FPSOs) for offshore hydrocarbon production lies in maximizing the economic value and productivity, while minimizing the Total Cost of Ownership and operational risk. This is a comprehensive task, considering the increasing demands of performance contracting, (down)time reduction, safety and sustainability while coping with high levels of phenomenological complexity and relatively low product maturity due to the limited amount of units deployed in varying operating conditions. Presently, design, construction and operational practices are largely influenced by high-cycle fatigue as a primary degradation parameter. Empirical (inspection) practices are deployed as the key instrument to identify and mitigate system anomalies and unanticipated defects, inherently a reactive measure. This paper describes a paradigm-shift from predominant singular methods into a more holistic and pro-active system approach to safeguard structural longevity. This is done through a short review of several synergetic Joint Industry Projects (JIP’s) from different angles of incidence on enhanced design and operations through coherent a-priori fatigue prediction and posteriori anomaly detection and -monitoring.
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AimsKnowledge of patient preferences is vital for delivering optimal healthcare. This study uses utility measurement to assess the preferences of heart failure (HF) patients regarding quality of life or longevity. The utility approach represents the perspective of a patient; facilitates the combination of mortality, morbidity, and treatment regimen into a single score; and makes it possible to compare the effects of different interventions in healthcare.Methods and resultsPatient preferences of 100 patients with HF were assessed in interviews using the time trade-off (TTO) approach. Health-related quality of life (HR-QoL) was assessed with the EQ-5D and the Minnesota Living with Heart Failure Questionnaire (MLHFQ). Patients' own estimation of life expectancy was assessed with a visual analogue scale (VAS). Of the 100 patients (mean age 70 ± 9 years; 71% male), 61% attach more weight to quality of life over longevity; while 9% and 14% were willing to trade 6 and 12 months, respectively, for perfect health and attach more weight to quality of life. Patients willing to trade time had a significantly higher level of NT-proBNP and reported significantly more dyspnoea during exertion. Predictors of willingness to trade time were higher NT-proBNP and lower EQ VAS.ConclusionThe majority of HF patients attach more weight to quality of life over longevity. There was no difference between both groups with respect to life expectancy described by the patients. These insights enable open and personalized discussions of patients' preferences in treatment and care decisions, and could guide the future development of more patient-centred care. © 2013 Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2013. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.
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De technische en economische levensduur van auto’s verschilt. Een goed onderhouden auto met dieselmotor uit het bouwjaar 2000 kan technisch perfect functioneren. De economische levensduur van diezelfde auto is echter beperkt bij introductie van strenge milieuzones. Bij de introductie en verplichtstelling van geavanceerde rijtaakondersteunende systemen (ADAS) zien we iets soortgelijks. Hoewel de auto technisch gezien goed functioneert kunnen verouderde software, algorithmes en sensoren leiden tot een beperkte levensduur van de gehele auto. Voorbeelden: - Jeep gehackt: verouderde veiligheidsprotocollen in de software en hardware beperkten de economische levensduur. - Actieve Cruise Control: sensoren/radars van verouderde systemen leiden tot beperkte functionaliteit en gebruikersacceptatie. - Tesla: bij bestaande auto’s worden verouderde sensoren uitgeschakeld waardoor functies uitvallen. In 2019 heeft de EU een verplichting opgelegd aan automobielfabrikanten om 20 nieuwe ADAS in te bouwen in nieuw te ontwikkelen auto’s, ongeacht prijsklasse. De mate waarin deze ADAS de economische levensduur van de auto beperkt is echter nog onvoldoende onderzocht. In deze KIEM wordt dit onderzocht en wordt tevens de parallel getrokken met de mobiele telefonie; beide maken gebruik van moderne sensoren en software. We vergelijken ontwerpeisen van telefoons (levensduur van gemiddeld 2,5 jaar) met de eisen aan moderne ADAS met dezelfde sensoren (levensduur tot 20 jaar). De centrale vraag luidt daarom: Wat is de mogelijke impact van veroudering van ADAS op de economische levensduur van voertuigen en welke lessen kunnen we leren uit de onderliggende ontwerpprincipes van ADAS en Smartphones? De vraag wordt beantwoord door (i) literatuuronderzoek naar de veroudering van ADAS (ii) Interviews met ontwerpers van ADAS, leveranciers van retro-fit systemen en ontwerpers van mobiele telefoons en (iii) vergelijkend rij-onderzoek naar het functioneren van ADAS in auto’s van verschillende leeftijd en prijsklassen.
Predictive maintenance, using data of thousands of sensors already available, is key for optimizing the maintenance schedule and further prevention of unexpected failures in industry.Current maintenance concepts (in the maritime industry) are based on a fixed maintenance interval for each piece of equipment with enough safety margin to minimize incidents. This means that maintenance is most of the time carried out too early and sometimes too late. This is in particular true for maintenance on maritime equipment, where onshore maintenance is strongly preferred over offshore maintenance and needs to be aligned with the vessel’s operations schedule. However, state-of-the-art predictive maintenance methods rely on black-box machine learning techniques such as deep neural networks that are difficult to interpret and are difficult to accept and work with for the maintenance engineers. The XAIPre project (pronounce Xyper) aims at developing Explainable Predictive Maintenance algorithms that do not only provide the engineers with a prediction but in addition, with a risk analysis on the components when delaying the maintenance, and what the primary indicators are that the algorithms use to create inference. To use predictive maintenance effectively in Maritime operations, the predictive models and also the optimization of the maintenance schedule using these models, need to be aware of the past and planned vessel activities, since different activities affect the lifetime of the machines differently. For example, the degradation of a hydraulic pump inside a crane depends on the type of operations the crane but also the vessel is performing. Thus the models do not only need to be explainable but they also need to be aware of the context which is in this case the vessel and machinery activity. Using sensor data processing and edge-computing technologies that will be developed and applied by the Hanze University of Applied Sciences in Groningen (Hanze UAS), context information is extracted from the raw sensor data. The XAIPre project combines these Explainable Context Aware Machine Learning models with state-of-the-art optimizers, that are already developed and available from the NWO CIMPLO project at LIACS, in order to develop optimal maintenance schedules for machine components. The resulting XAIPre prototype offers significant competitive advantages for maritime companies such as Heerema, by increasing the longevity of machine components, increasing worker safety and decreasing maintenance costs.
Predictive maintenance, using data of thousands of sensors already available, is key for optimizing the maintenance schedule and further prevention of unexpected failures in industry. Current maintenance concepts (in the maritime industry) are based on a fixed maintenance interval for each piece of equipment with enough safety margin to minimize incidents. This means that maintenance is most of the time carried out too early and sometimes too late. This is in particular true for maintenance on maritime equipment, where onshore maintenance is strongly preferred over offshore maintenance and needs to be aligned with the vessel’s operations schedule. However, state-of-the-art predictive maintenance methods rely on black-box machine learning techniques such as deep neural networks that are difficult to interpret and are difficult to accept and work with for the maintenance engineers. The XAIPre project (pronounce “Xyper”) aims at developing Explainable Predictive Maintenance (XPdM) algorithms that do not only provide the engineers with a prediction but in addition, with 1) a risk analysis on the components when delaying the maintenance, and 2) what the primary indicators are that the algorithms used to create inference. To use predictive maintenance effectively in Maritime operations, the predictive models and the optimization of the maintenance schedule using these models, need to be aware of the past and planned vessel activities, since different activities affect the lifetime of the machines differently. For example, the degradation of a hydraulic pump inside a crane depends on the type of operations the crane performs. Thus, the models do not only need to be explainable but they also need to be aware of the context which is in this case the vessel and machinery activity. Using sensor data processing and edge-computing technologies that will be developed and applied by the Hanze UAS in Groningen, context information is extracted from the raw sensor data. The XAIPre project combines these Explainable Context Aware Machine Learning models with state-of-the-art optimizers, that we already developed in the NWO CIMPLO project at LIACS, in order to develop optimal maintenance schedules for machine components. The optimizers will be adapted to fit within XAIPre. The resulting XAIPre prototype offers significant competitive advantages for companies such as Heerema, by increasing the longevity of machine components, increasing worker safety, and decreasing maintenance costs. XAIPre will focus on the predictive maintenance of thrusters, which is a key sub-system with regards to maintenance as it is a core part of the vessels station keeping capabilities. Periodic maintenance is currently required in fixed intervals of 5 years. XPdM can provide a solid base to deviate from the Periodic Maintenance prescriptions to reduce maintenance costs while maintaining quality. Scaling up to include additional components and systems after XAIPre will be relatively straightforward due to the accumulated knowledge of the predictive maintenance process and the delivered methods. Although the XAIPre system will be evaluated on the use-cases of Heerema, many components of the system can be utilized across industries to save maintenance costs, maximize worker safety and optimize sustainability.
