The 2018 IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C once again highlighted (and with increased urgency) the benefits of immediate, extreme decarbonisation efforts in order to minimise the negative impacts of climate change. Achieving such demanding global targets requires concerted national, subnational, and local efforts. In combination, these efforts result in transition pathways. Implementation of the technologies and policies at the heart of such pathways is often considered as inherently positive, thus the immediate risks associated with the pathway are the barriers faced on implementation. However, successful implementation of a climate change mitigation policy may also have potentially negative consequences. On either side a host of more abstract uncertainties increase the difficultly of decision making. In this chapter, we provide a synthesis of eleven low-carbon transition pathways from across the globe and explore the risks and uncertainties associated with them. We structure our discussion around three nested dimensions present in all pathways: technological innovations implemented in a local context; policy mixes promoting these technologies; and society, where social-economic priorities may lead individuals and communities to support or oppose the low-carbon pathway. Across these themes, we also explore the meaning of scale and stakeholders’ perceptions of time in low-carbon pathways. Our discussion reflects the complexity associated with assessing risks in contested settings. While many of these risks are context specific and reflect a broad range of stakeholder perspectives, common risks are found across the case studies, regardless of the local context, the technology promoted, and the policy mix implemented.
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Paper presented online at the International Sustainability Transitions conference 2020, Wien, Austria
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Key takeaways from the project underscore the importance of fostering long-term collaborations between technical experts, communities, and institutional partners. By integrating technical innovation with human-centred design, the SUSTENANCE project has not only advanced renewable energy adoption but also established a framework for empowering communities to actively participate in sustainable energy transitions. Moving forward, the lessons learned, and solutions developed provide a solid foundation for addressing future challenges in energy system decarbonization and resilience.
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The Dutch Environmental Vision and Mobility Vision 2050 promote climate-neutral urban growth around public transport stations, envisioning them as vibrant hubs for mobility, community, and economy. However, redevelopment often increases construction, a major CO₂ contributor. Dutch practice-led projects like 'Carbon Based Urbanism', 'MooiNL - Practical guide to urban node development', and 'Paris Proof Stations' explore integrating spatial and environmental requirements through design. Design Professionals seek collaborative methods and tools to better understand how can carbon knowledge and skills be effectively integrated into station area development projects, in architecture and urban design approaches. Redeveloping mobility hubs requires multi-stakeholder negotiations involving city planners, developers, and railway managers. Designers act as facilitators of the process, enabling urban and decarbonization transitions. CARB-HUB explores how co-creation methods can help spatial design processes balance mobility, attractiveness, and carbon neutrality across multiple stakeholders. The key outputs are: 1- Serious Game for Co-Creation, which introduces an assessment method for evaluating the potential of station locations, referred to as the 4P value framework. 2-Design Toolkit for Decarbonization, featuring a set of Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) to guide sustainable development. 3- Research Bid for the DUT–Driving Urban Transitions Program, focusing on the 15-minute City Transition Pathway. 4- Collaborative Network dedicated to promoting a low-carbon design approach. The 4P value framework offers a comprehensive method for assessing the redevelopment potential of station areas, focusing on four key dimensions: People, which considers user experience and accessibility; Position, which examines the station's role within the broader transport network; Place-making, which looks at how well the station integrates into its surrounding urban environment; and Planet, which addresses decarbonization and climate adaptation. CARB-HUB uses real cases of Dutch stations in transition as testbeds. By translating abstract environmental goals into tangible spatial solutions, CARB-HUB enables scenario-based planning, engaging designers, policymakers, infrastructure managers, and environmental advocates.
