The 2018 IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C once again highlighted (and with increased urgency) the benefits of immediate, extreme decarbonisation efforts in order to minimise the negative impacts of climate change. Achieving such demanding global targets requires concerted national, subnational, and local efforts. In combination, these efforts result in transition pathways. Implementation of the technologies and policies at the heart of such pathways is often considered as inherently positive, thus the immediate risks associated with the pathway are the barriers faced on implementation. However, successful implementation of a climate change mitigation policy may also have potentially negative consequences. On either side a host of more abstract uncertainties increase the difficultly of decision making. In this chapter, we provide a synthesis of eleven low-carbon transition pathways from across the globe and explore the risks and uncertainties associated with them. We structure our discussion around three nested dimensions present in all pathways: technological innovations implemented in a local context; policy mixes promoting these technologies; and society, where social-economic priorities may lead individuals and communities to support or oppose the low-carbon pathway. Across these themes, we also explore the meaning of scale and stakeholders’ perceptions of time in low-carbon pathways. Our discussion reflects the complexity associated with assessing risks in contested settings. While many of these risks are context specific and reflect a broad range of stakeholder perspectives, common risks are found across the case studies, regardless of the local context, the technology promoted, and the policy mix implemented.
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Paper presented online at the International Sustainability Transitions conference 2020, Wien, Austria
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With the effects of climate change linked to the use of fossil fuels, as well as the prospect of their eventual depletion, becoming more noticeable, political establishment and society appear ready to switch towards using renewable energy. Solar power and wind power are considered to be the most significant source of global low-carbon energy supply. Wind energy continues to expand as it becomes cheaper and more technologically advanced. Yet, despite these expectations and developments, fossil fuels still comprise nine-tenths of the global commercial energy supply. In this article, the history, technology, and politics involved in the production and barriers to acceptance of wind energy will be explored. The central question is why, despite the problems associated with the use of fossil fuels, carbon dependency has not yet given way to the more ecologically benign forms of energy. Having briefly surveyed some literature on the role of political and corporate stakeholders, as well as theories relating to sociological and psychological factors responsible for the grassroots’ resistance (“not in my backyard” or NIMBYs) to renewable energy, the findings indicate that motivation for opposition to wind power varies. While the grassroots resistance is often fueled by the mistrust of the government, the governments’ reason for resisting renewable energy can be explained by their history of a close relationship with the industrial partners. This article develops an argument that understanding of various motivations for resistance at different stakeholder levels opens up space for better strategies for a successful energy transition. https://doi.org/10.30560/sdr.v1n1p11 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/helenkopnina/
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Paper presented at the International Sustainability Transitions conference 2018 (12-14 june) Manchester, UK. The Dutch agrifood regime is grinding to a halt. International economic pressures force Dutch farmers to further scale up and intensify their businesses, while food scandals and calamities as well as many and varied negative environmental impacts have led to an all-time low societal acceptance of the agrifood regime as well as a host of legislative measures to stifle further growth. Such a situation, in which regime pressures increasingly undermine the regime, represents a strong call for transition of the Dutch agrifood system.At the same time, new business models emerge: new players arrive, new logistical pathways come to the fore and innovative consumer and farmer relationships – food co-operatives – are forged. In a sense, the transition is already under way (cf. Hermans et al., 2010), with new business models forming an important backbone. However, the way forward is still a matter of great uncertainty and controversy: How do new business models relate to reconfiguring the Dutch agrifood system? We explore the hypothesis that different transition pathways put specific demands on the role of new business models. We studied various new business models in the Dutch agrifood system and their relations to three different transition pathways. Our research combines future exploration (backcasting) and analysis of new business models. In this research, we approach this question from two angles. First, we introduce a transition-oriented business model concept, in order to effectively link new business models to transition. Then we shortly touch upon the transition pathway typology introduced by Geels et al. (2016) and describe three different transition pathways for the Dutch agrifood system. We report on XX business models in each of these transition pathways. The paper ends with a discussion of the role of business models for different types of transition pathways.
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The Utrecht SBE16 Conference. From the introduction: "The conference is part of the Sustainable Built conference series and is as such considered to be part of the pre-eminent international conference series on sustainable building and construction endorsed by iiSBE, UNEP-SBO and FIDIC. The Utrecht SBE16 conference is hosted by the Centre of Expertise Smart Sustainable Cities of HU University of Applied Sciences Utrecht, in partnership with six Dutch Universities of Applied Sciences (Avans, Saxion, Rotterdam, The Hague, Zuyd, InHolland) and the Utrecht Sustainability Institute (USI). The Transition Zero conference provides us with a unique opportunity to meet transition professionals in urban sustainability from all over Europe and beyond and to learn about the latest developments and best (inter)national practices in urban sustainability. The rich interest in the conference, made it possible to offer research as well as practitioner-driven tracks on topics related to the conference title. The conference brought together excellent future-minded practitioners, researchers and thought leaders from the R&I community, specialists and professionals on zero energy homes and transition of the built environment."
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New Dutch agrifood business models are emerging in response to economic, social and ecological pressures: new players arrive, new logistical pathways come to the fore and innovative consumer and farmer relationships – food coöperatives – are forged. How do new business models relate to reconfiguring the Dutch agrifood system? Our research combines future exploration (backcasting) and analysis of new business models. We developed three agrifood transition scenarios with various groups of stakeholders. For each scenario, we then analysed a specific, representative business model to explore the different roles of business models in agrifood transition. Business models in the “Added value in and with the countryside” already exist and occupy a niche in the market. However, a breakthrough of these business models require large-scale institutional and behavioural change. Business models in the “New products, specific markets” exist but are rare. They usually concern high-value specialist products that could result in widespread market change, but might require little institutional change. The “Sustainable production methods” most resembles the current system. Some associated business models become successful, but they have difficulty distinguishing themselves from conventional produce, which raises questions about whether business models are able to drive a transition in this direction. Thus, our results lend credence to the hypothesis that different transition pathways offer specific potential for and requirements of new business models.
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The current western agrifood system is highly successful in providing for human needs. However, the dominant agricultural approach of up-scaling and specialisation is put under pressure by a number of developments in the global landscape. Global developments such as population growth, pollution, soil degradation and climate change, in which agriculture plays a crucial role, make the need for a transition towards a paradigm with a broader range of values evident. Niche initiatives often develop as a reaction to needs not fulfilled by the regime. Therefore, certain niches may have the potential of driving a necessary transition. This research aims to determine if permaculture, being a niche, has this potential. The main question for this research was formulated as follows: How can a production system based on permaculture principles contribute to the agrifood transition? To answer this question, relevant current trends and global developments were used as a basis for developing a future scenario. Empirical qualitative data on permaculture businesses in the Netherlands was gathered as well, of which the results were used for a determination of permaculture’s performance in this future scenario. This was done by comparing a standardised permaculture system with a conventional potato system. As a result of this comparison, the Unique Selling Points of permaculture were identified, which determine the future potential of permaculture.
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Energy policies are vital tools used by countries to regulate economic and social development as well as guarantee national security. To address the problems of fragmented policy objectives, conflicting tools, and overlapping initiatives, the internal logic and evolutionary trends of energy policies must be explored using the policy content. This study uses 38,277 energy policies as a database and summarizes the four energy policy objectives: clean, low-carbon, safe, and efficient. Using the TextCNN model to classify and deconstruct policies, the LDA + Word2vec theme conceptualization and similarity calculations were compared with the EISMD evolution framework to determine the energy policy theme evolution path. Results indicate that the density of energy policies has increased. Policies have become more comprehensive, barriers between objectives have gradually been broken, and low-carbon objectives have been strengthened. The evolution types are more diversified, evolution paths are more complicated, and the evolution types are often related to technology, industry, and market maturity. Traditional energy themes evolve through inheritance and merger; emerging technology and industry themes evolve through innovation, inheritance, and splitting. Moreover, this study provides a replicable analytical framework for the study of policy evolution in other sectors and evidence for optimizing energy policy design
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The Interreg Europe eBussed project supports the transition of European regions towards low carbon mobility and more efficient transport. The regions involved are Turku (Finland), Hamburg (Germany), Utrecht (The Netherlands), Livorno (Italy), South Transdanubia (Hungary) and Gozo island in Malta. It promotes the uptake of e-busses in new regions and supports the expansion of existing e-fleets. Within the project, there are four thematic working groups formed that aim at delivering a best practices report and policy recommendations to be used in the partner regions. Thematic Working Group 4 (TWG4) focusses on the topics of Procurement, Tendering and Costs of e-busses. As a starting point for TWG4, the value chain for e-bus public transport per region has been mapped. By mapping how the value chain for e-bus public transport works and defining the nature of the issues, problems or maybe challenges per region can be better understood.
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The goal of a local energy community (LEC) is to create a more sustainable, resilient, and efficient energy system by reducing dependence on centralized power sources and enabling greater participation and control by local communities and individuals. LEC requires transformations in local energy systems, and strongly depends on the preferences and actions of the local actors involved. The necessity for extensive stakeholder involvement adds complexity to the energy transition, posing a significant challenge for all involved parties. The municipality of Leidschendam-Voorburg has committed to the national decision for energy transition. It has taken a strategic approach by proceeding De Heuvel/Amstelwijk as the pioneer in this initiative, leading the way for other neighborhoods to follow. It is crucial to devise strategies that effectively facilitate stakeholder engagement. To this end, a thorough stakeholder analysis is needed. Such an analysis can focus on the identification of key stakeholders, their interests, their influence, and their behavioral characteristics in relation to the energy transition. Additionally, it's crucial to uncover the challenges encountered by these stakeholders and finally develop appropriate strategies to address them hence enhance their engagement. This thesis begins with an introduction to the research background, including a presentation of the case study and a statement of the problem identified in the field, followed by the research questions underpinning the study. A thorough literature review ensues, providing a robust synthesis of existing research relating to stakeholder engagement in LECs, with a view to expediting energy transitions. The literature review not only forms the foundation for the research methods adopted in this study but also promotes in the construction of the conceptual model. Subsequent to the literature review, the research method is detailed. The filed research is conducted in five steps: Step 1 - identification of stakeholders, Step 2 - prioritization of stakeholders, Step 3 - interviewing, Step 4 - data analysis, including stakeholder profiling with mapping and addressing challenges, and finally, Step 5 - proposal of strategies for stakeholder engagement enhancement based on the expected and current levels of stakeholders engagement. This research collects necessary information to understand the profiles of stakeholders in De Heuvel/Amstelwijk, tackle challenges faced by different stakeholders, propose strategies to increase stakeholders engagement. It not only aims to enrich the depth of theoretical knowledge on the subject matter but also strives to aid in the development of a localized energy strategy that is optimally suited for the De Heuvel/Amstelwijk neighborhood as good example for other neighborhoods.
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