In this thesis several studies are presented that have targeted decision making about case management plans in probation. In a case management plan probation officers describe the goals and interventions that should help offenders stop reoffending, and the specific measures necessary to reduce acute risks of recidivism and harm. Such a plan is embedded in a judicial framework, a sanction or advice about the sanction in which these interventions and measures should be executed. The topic of this thesis is the use of structured decision support, and the question is if this can improve decision making about case management plans in probation and subsequently improve the effectiveness of offender supervision. In this chapter we first sketch why structured decision making was introduced in the Dutch probation services. Next we describe the instrument for risk and needs assessment as well as the procedure to develop case management plans that are used by the Dutch probation services and that are investigated in this thesis. Then we describe the setting of the studies and the research questions, and we conclude with an overview of this thesis.
The body of evidence that the working alliance is associated with positive outcomes for mandated clients is growing. The aim of this research was to investigate the influence of several characteristics of probation officers (POs) and offenders on the course of the working alliance during probation supervision. This study examined the patterns on the four alliance subscales: Trust, Bond, Goals-Restrictions, and Reactance of the Working Alliance With Mandated Clients Inventory (WAMCI) in 201 offenders and their 137 POs. Three patterns on each alliance subscale were found: deteriorating, improving, and stable. Multinomial logistic analysis revealed that change of POs and the preference of the PO to maintain rules were associated with a deteriorating Trust pattern. From the perspective of the offenders, being motivated to take part in supervision was associated with a stable pattern on every alliance subscale, but having problems with substance use increased the likelihood of a deteriorating pattern on every alliance subscale.
Therapy alliance has been studied largely in voluntary psychotherapy but less is known about its predictive factors for positive alliance and treatment outcome in forensic populations. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between offenders’ emotional states and therapy alliance. Moreover, we were interested in the predictive impact of emotional states early in treatment on alliance at 18 months into treatment. Self-ratings of emotional states and alliance by 103 male offenders, and therapist-ratings for therapy alliance were examined using hierarchical multiple regression analyses. Participants were primarily convicted for violent of sexual offenses, and were diagnosed with antisocial, borderline or narcissistic personality disorders. Healthy emotional states were predictive of mid-treatment agreement on therapy goals and therapist ratings on tasks within the therapy. Unhealthy emotional states were predictive of patient-rated agreement on tasks. Emotional states were not predictive for the reported therapist/patient bond or global alliance ratings. This study emphasizes the importance of healthy emotional states in treatment of offenders with personality disorders.
