Although dozens of empirical studies have been published on effectuation as a whole, much work remains to be done on elaborating each principle in more depth. Based on an exploratory study of seven ventures from the Caribbean island of Curacao, this paper develops an elaborated process model of the affordable loss heuristic in effectuation. The model breaks affordable loss into two components—ability and willingness, and connects these to the concept of loss aversion from prospect theory. Furthermore, these components are encapsulated in a process involving identity, affect, and resourcefulness leading to the entry-stage entrepreneurial investment decision.
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This paper explores the creation and use of a long-term global tourism transport model for private and public sector tourism policy makers. Given that technology is unlikely to reduce tourism transport's impact on climate change sufficiently to avoid serious dangers, behavioural change is necessary. The model presented here helps policy makers and the tourism sector evaluate behavioural change measures. Such tools to assess long-term (up to a century) policy impacts do not currently exist. Projecting behavioural change over such long periods is difficult with contemporary economic modelling. This paper's model is founded in psychological economics theory and mechanisms at work in product diffusion. It describes the tourism system based on identifiable mechanisms and not on statistical relations with only current validity. It delivers global numbers of trips and distances travelled per transport mode as a function of transport cost, travel time, population and income distribution. The model is based on theories including product innovation theory (Bass model) and prospect theory (psychological value). It has been successfully calibrated to tourism development between 1900 and 2005 and tested against future low and high growth economic and demographic scenario combinations. Implications for tourism travel and climate change are discussed.
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Large groups in society lack the necessary skills to be sufficiently self-reliant and are in need of personal assistance. These groups could be supported by information and information technology (ICT), but only if this technology is designed to fit their (cognitive) abilities. Inclusive design theory and methods have already been developed in research contexts, but there is still a gap between theory and practice. There is a need for a practical aid, that helps to create awareness of inclusive design among ICT developers, and offers easy-to-use information and tools to actually apply the methods for diverse target groups. This paper describes the first steps taken towards an inclusive design toolbox for developing ICT applications that offer cognitive support for selfreliance. Dutch ICT companies were interviewed and participated in a co-design workshop, leading to a number of initial needs, user requirements, and an on-line community, that form input for further development of the toolbox.
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