Substitution is an essential tool for a coach to influence the match. Factors like the injury of a player, required tactical changes, or underperformance of a player initiates substitutions. This study aims to predict the physical performance of individual players in an early phase of the match to provide additional information to the coach for his decision on substitutions. Tracking data of individual players, except for goalkeepers, from 302 elite soccer matches of the Dutch ‘Eredivisie’ 2018–2019 season were used to enable the prediction of the individual physical performance. The players’ physical performance is expressed in the variables distance covered, distance in speed category, and energy expenditure in power category. The individualized normalized variables were used to build machine learning models that predict whether players will achieve 100%, 95%, or 90% of their average physical performance in a match. The tree-based algorithms Random Forest and Decision Tree were applied to build the models. A simple Naïve Bayes algorithm was used as the baseline model to support the superiority of the tree-based algorithms. The machine learning technique Random Forest combined with the variable energy expenditure in the power category was the most precise. The combination of Random Forest and energy expenditure in the power category resulted in precision in predicting performance and underperformance after 15 min in a match, and the values were 0.91, 0.88, and 0.92 for the thresholds 100%, 95%, and 90%, respectively. To conclude, it is possible to predict the physical performance of individual players in an early phase of the match. These findings offer opportunities to support coaches in making more informed decisions on player substitutions in elite soccer.
Psoriasis (Pso) is a chronic inflammatory skin disease, and up to 30% of Pso patients develop psoriatic arthritis (PsA), which can lead to irreversible joint damage. Early detection of PsA in Pso patients is crucial for timely treatment but difficult for dermatologists to implement. We, therefore, aimed to find disease-specific immune profiles, discriminating Pso from PsA patients, possibly facilitating the correct identification of Pso patients in need of referral to a rheumatology clinic. The phenotypes of peripheral blood immune cells of consecutive Pso and PsA patients were analyzed, and disease-specific immune profiles were identified via a machine learning approach. This approach resulted in a random forest classification model capable of distinguishing PsA from Pso (mean AUC = 0.95). Key PsA-classifying cell subsets selected included increased proportions ofdifferentiated CD4+CD196+CD183-CD194+ and CD4+CD196-CD183-CD194+ T-cells and reduced proportions of CD196+ and CD197+ monocytes, memory CD4+ and CD8+ T-cell subsets and CD4+ regulatory T-cells. Within PsA, joint scores showed an association with memory CD8+CD45RACD197- effector T-cells and CD197+ monocytes. To conclude, through the integration of in-depth flow cytometry and machine learning, we identified an immune cell profile discriminating PsA from Pso. This immune profile may aid in timely diagnosing PsA in Pso.
MULTIFILE
The prediction of the running injuries based on selfreported training data on load is difficult. At present, coaches and researchers have no validated system to predict if a runner has an increased risk of injuries. We aim to develop an algorithm to predict the increase of the risk of a runner to sustain an injury. As a first step Self-reported data on training parameters and injuries from high-level runners (duration=37 weeks, n=23, male=16, female=7) were used to identify the most predictive variables for injuries, and train a machine learning tree algorithm to predict an injury. The model was validated by splitting the data in training and a test set. The 10 most important variables were identified from 85 possible variables using the Random Forest algorithm. To predict at an earliest stage, so the runner or the coach is able to intervene, the variables were classified by time to build tree algorithms up to 7 weeks before the occurrence of an injury. By building machine learning algorithms using existing self-reported training data can enable prospective identification of high-level runners who are likely to develop an injury. Only the established prediction model needs to be verified as correct.
