This paper presents four Destination Stewardship scenarios based on different levels of engagement from the public and private sector. The scenarios serve to support destination stakeholders in assessing their current context and the pathway towards greater stewardship. A Destination Stewardship Governance Diagnostic framework is built on the scenarios to support its stakeholders in considering how to move along that pathway, identifying the key aspects of governance that are either facilitating or frustrating a destination stewardship approach, and the required actions and resources to achieve an improved scenario. Moreover, the scenarios and diagnostic framework support stakeholders to come together to debate and scrutinise how tourism is managed in a way that meets the needs of the destination, casting new light on the barriers and opportunities for greater destination stewardship.
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Significant factors in the success or failure of energy transition arise from the spatial potential of places and their communities. Scenario planning appears to be an appropriate design instrument to enable architects to unveil, conceptualise, imagine, test and communicate this potential to stakeholders. This paper critically refelcts on the scenario as an architectural design instrument. Inscribed with political intentions, scenario planning may be a far from neutral design instrument. Instead of triggering communities to explore local energy potential, a scenario may have a normative effect on a community's imagination. The paper aims to define guidelines for the deployment of scenarios in an open, participatory planning process. To mediate in a local participatory planning process, we argue, scenarios should be situational, dynamic and open-ended, allowing or even triggering communities to (re)define the issues relevant to a place during the ongoing process of energy-transition. How, when and where should scenarios be deployed in order to enable communities to understand and develop their local energy potential?
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Continuous monitoring, continuous auditing and continuous assurance are three methods that utilize a high degree of business intelligence and analytics. The increased interest in the three methods has led to multiple studies that analyze each method or a combination of methods from a micro-level. However, limited studies have focused on the perceived usage scenarios of the three methods from a macro level through the eyes of the end-user. In this study, we bridge the gap by identifying the different usage scenarios for each of the methods according to the end-users, the accountants. Data has been collected through a survey, which is analyzed by applying a nominal analysis and a process mining algorithm. Results show that respondents indicated 13 unique usage scenarios, while not one of the three methods is included in all of the 13 scenarios, which illustrates the diversity of opinions in accountancy practice in the Netherlands.
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The second Workshop on Tradeoffs Scenarios between the Impact on Seafloor Habitats and Provisions of catch/value (WKTRADE2) was established to provide input on trade-offs aspects to the Working group on Fisheries Benthic Impact and Trade-offs (WGFBIT). As such, the workshop was tasked to: 1) demonstrate the applicability of a set of approaches to better estimate fisheries revenue; 2) establish ways to assess effort reduction scenarios; and 3) explore how to (better) incorporate social factors associated with fisheries. The workshop suggests that to improve estimates of the “value” of an area to fisheries that the contribution margin (income from landings minus variable costs) should be calculated. To do this two complementary approaches (disaggregation and mechanistic) are presented and can be developed using the current ICES VMS and logbook data, supplemented with economic data layers. A modular workflow to integrate the variables into the assessment is also presented. Furthermore, the workshop found that redistribution of total revenue among individual fishers and fishers’ communities will need to be considered to accurately predict displacement effects and impact evaluation on fisheries economics. Applying predictive modelling techniques adds to assessing a static picture (current fishing activity) because it considers displacement effects which may elucidate increased pressure on essential fish habitats, sensitive vulnerable habitats, or previously untrawled areas. To better identify trade-offs between ecological, economic and social factors for use by the ICES working group WGFBIT, the workshop recommends also using integrative approaches (e.g. bioeconomic models, stakeholder engagement) that account for direct linkages between fish, fisheries and benthos dynamics to address issues related to MSFD, CFP and spatial management plans in a consistent way. When considering the effects of displacement the contribution margin should be accounted for as the fishing closures are likely to have indirect (positive or negative) effects. For example, protecting part of the fish stocks might lead to better catch rates and therefore fuel savings, etc. The workshop also found static models to be operational and more easily used to identify impacted fishing fleets. While, dynamic modelling approaches allow for the adaptation of fishing fleets (e.g. displacement, gear modifications), potentially mitigating the estimated impact of spatial and temporal restrictions. Static approaches are easy to use in stakeholder processes, and can facilitate stakeholder engagement. Future development of static and dynamic models will need to account for the influence of other activities (e.g. closures due to wind farm) on fisheries activities. Running scenarios using dynamic models will indicate which areas are most valuable to fisheries after spatial management scenarios are proposed. This elicits the socio-economic valuable fisheries areas. The workshop’s focus was on the spatial management scenarios so far identified by the working group WGFBIT, but the suggested workflow can also be used to address other scenarios, e.g. technical measures aimed at reducing gear penetration depths, disturbance effects and improving selectivity, habitat credits approaches that define credits related to the sensitivity of habitat and convey credits to the fishing industry to manage either collectively or individually. The workshop also identified some follow-up work that working group WGFBIT could take on to both to improve the current scenario testing on spatial restrictions, as well as how to deal with fleet adaptation/effort displacement in reaction to the spatial restrictions. This work would benefit by stronger links to ICES working groups WGECON and WGSOCIAL to ensure the required fisheries economic expertise.
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The challenge of mitigating climate change is critical to desirable tourism transportation futures, although to date relatively little attention has been paid to this aspect of sustainable tourism. This introductory article to the special issues on ‘Desirable Tourism Transport Futures’ explores approaches to transitioning the tourism sector to a sustainable emissions path. It starts by describing an undesirable tourism transport future associated with a business-as-usual scenario, which will inevitably cause the climate mitigation goals outlined in the Paris Climate Accord to soon become unattainable. We then outline a scenario for a climatically desirable future, and its social and economic implications. It is important that desirable tourism transport futures are critically considered in terms of both spatial and temporal scale. The scenarios that inform this editorial provide some insights at the long-term macro-scale. These scenarios are associated with desirable and undesirable elements that will no doubt continue to be the subject of much debate and contestation. While these scenarios will represent both opportunities and threats to the full spectrum of tourism industry stakeholders, they should also inform manifold avenues of future research at a critical moment in the evolution of tourism transportation and the pursuit of the UN Sustainable Development Goals.
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We investigated to what extent correctional officers were able to apply skills from their self-defence training in reality-based scenarios. Performance of nine self-defence skills were tested in different scenarios at three moments: before starting the self-defence training programme (Pre-test), halfway through (Post-test 1), and after (Post-test 2). Repeated measures analyses showed that performance on skills improved after the self-defence training. For each skill, however, there was a considerable number of correctional officers (range 4–73%) that showed insufficient performance on Post-test 2, indicating that after training they were not able to properly apply their skills in reality-based scenarios. Reality-based scenarios may be used to achieve fidelity in assessment of self-defence skills of correctional officers.Practitioner summary: Self-defence training for correctional officers must be representative for the work field. By including reality-based scenarios in assessment, this study determined that correctional officers were not able to properly apply their learned skills in realistic contexts. Reality-based scenarios seem fit to detect discrepancies between training and the work field. Abbreviations: DJI: Dutch National Agency for Correctional Insitutes; ICC: Intraclass Correlation Coefficient.
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Over the past decades, journalism schools and journalism training programmes have been trying to keep up with the constant technological and societal developments. Numerous studies have been done about what knowledge and skills should be taught and several on how they should be taught, to be more adaptive to this changing environment and media landscape. Meanwhile, also media companies are increasingly becoming educators, with their own learning academies to make journalists become lifelong learners. In this study, which was conducted in the Netherlands, we take a holistic approach to understanding the uncertain future journalism education is currently dealing with. We use the method of scenario planning to systematically analyse the current debate on journalism education. By collecting opinions and views of fifty different experts from the broad field of journalism and (journalism) education, we deducted certain and uncertain trends that led to two axes, answering the following questions: What type of journalism do we educate for and Who is in charge of the learning process? Crossing these axes, four scenarios for the future of journalism education appear. With this study, we intend to facilitate the debate on the future of journalism education.
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The aim of this paper is to understand how employees, in their role of follower of change, frame upcoming change by studying the prospective stories they tell (n=110). This study complements the dominant retrospective approach to the research of employees’ change sensemaking. We incorporate forward-looking awareness into organization theories and add to the scholarly interest in prospection (Gioia & Patvardhan, 2018). This could lead to a better understanding of followers’ adaptation- or rejection intentions in response to change initiatives (Konlechner et al., 2018). Theoretical background Employees experience continuous shifts in relationships and organizational roles (Van der Smissen et al., 2013). This ‘turbulence’ triggers intensive sensemaking (Weick, 1995) of what is going on and how to respond. In uncertain times, employees often form expectations towards the future based on their remembered experiences from the past, and organizational change literature has traditionally taken a retrospective approach to understand followers’ change sensemaking (Boje, 2008). However, traditional literature neither provides elaborate insight in followers’ attempts to build scenarios for their future, nor do they add to the understanding of followers’ hopes, dreams, concerns, or fears (which all have a future time orientation) in the context of upcoming change. Scholars suggested that the current radical changes employees face cannot be anticipated easily from a mere retrospective approach (MacKay & Chia, 2013). In reality, employees think as often about their future as they do about their past and tend to create complex, temporal ranges of future orientations (Klein, 2013). Hence, researchers have critiqued the omission of the possible impact of beliefs and expectations about the future (e.g., Kaplan & Orlikowski, 2013), and have developed complementary notions to develop temporal sensemaking to challenge us to “mentally reverse the arrow of time” (Lord et al., 2013, p. 4) by focusing on expected futures to understand the present. The acknowledgement of prospective sensemaking directing attitudes and behaviors today (Maitlis & Christianson, 2014), expectedly offers novel insights to those interesting in understanding employees’ change behaviors. Design/Methodology/Approach/Intervention. A narrative approach is used to capture 110 individuals’ idiosyncratic and cultural sensemaking efforts (Pentland, 1999). We created a digital research set-up in which participants were guided to write a narrative that resembles a biographical account about a fictive colleague. Participants were introduced to the task by a video message from the fictive focal actor “Jim” and a video announcement of upcoming change by a fictive CEO in a Zoom-call for the entire organization. By means of the Story Completion Method, participants were asked “how does the story end?” and invited to write subsequent chapters on how they expected this story to continue, and how the roles and responses of the different actors would unfold along the way. Research context is provided by the Dutch travel industry in which organizations are dealing with heavy consequences of the COVID19 pandemic. Results will be available by November 2021. Limitations Qualitative research is less generalizable given the sample size and scope. Besides, the method requires specific skills and a level of empathy with the scenario, this proved to be difficult for some of the participants. In our analysis we therefore have to account for a difference between prospective sensemaking efforts and mere extrapolations of past experiences. Research/Practical Implications This study reveals potentialities that are considered to be available in the future. For change leaders, it is helpful to understand these potentialities as they reveal explanations for differences in followers’ prospective change strategies, and diverse anticipative responses to change efforts. We extend the concept of prospective sensemaking, and explore its use in a follower-based, dynamic context of organizational change. Originality/Value Advancing the concept of follower-based prospective sensemaking is important as it could provide explorative notions that illustrate the formation and use of expectations. Especially interesting is the context Dutch travel industry context as employees at the time of data collection experienced a ‘cosmology episode’ triggering sudden loss of meaning and coherence. This is perceived to be a critical trigger for sensemaking in the absence of past empirical experience (as no one experienced a pandemic and resulting business challenges before, but rather relies on transcendent belief systems in the face of future uncertainty (Weick, 1993)).
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For people with early-dementia (PwD), it can be challenging to remember to eat and drink regularly and maintain a healthy independent living. Existing intelligent home technologies primarily focus on activity recognition but lack adaptive support. This research addresses this gap by developing an AI system inspired by the Just-in-Time Adaptive Intervention (JITAI) concept. It adapts to individual behaviors and provides personalized interventions within the home environment, reminding and encouraging PwD to manage their eating and drinking routines. Considering the cognitive impairment of PwD, we design a human-centered AI system based on healthcare theories and caregivers’ insights. It employs reinforcement learning (RL) techniques to deliver personalized interventions. To avoid overwhelming interaction with PwD, we develop an RL-based simulation protocol. This allows us to evaluate different RL algorithms in various simulation scenarios, not only finding the most effective and efficient approach but also validating the robustness of our system before implementation in real-world human experiments. The simulation experimental results demonstrate the promising potential of the adaptive RL for building a human-centered AI system with perceived expressions of empathy to improve dementia care. To further evaluate the system, we plan to conduct real-world user studies.
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