The COVID-19 pandemic caused a sudden disruption in the development of international business travel, with over 90% of global companies suspending all non-essential travel, leading to a significant drop in international travel arrivals. Businesses successfully transitioned to online meetings. Many expected that this would lead to a permanent reduction in business travel volumes. Nevertheless, by 2024, international travel arrivals surpassed 2019 levels by 2%, indicating a full recovery in the sector.

Based on research in Amsterdam, the full recovery of the business travel sector is attributed to a lower total number of business travellers staying longer. In 2023, the number of business visitors was 13% lower than in 2019, but the total number of overnight stays fully recovered. The average length of stay for international business guests increased from 2.34 days in 2019 to 2.71 days in 2023. Furthermore, there was a significant increase in total overnight stays in 3-star establishments, indicating a shift in accommodation preferences. Significant shifts in the markets of origin were also observed due to external disruptions.

The ‘baseline scenario’ for business travel in 2035, derived from survey outcomes, envisions a future ‘without surprises’, where current trends and events continue to evolve. There are signs of a full recovery of business travel, with shifts in the countries of origin for business guests, an increase in short haul business travel, and a change in accommodation preferences. AI and technology will be integral, handling booking journeys based on traveller preferences and environmental impact, and facilitating trip preparation. The nature of meetings will evolve, blending online and offline interactions. Business travellers will prefer those destinations that offer a balance between work-related opportunities and leisure activities. Sustainability will be a key factor in business travel decisions, with a shift from air to train travel for shorter business trips. Hotels will adapt by focusing on personalisation, digitalisation, and sustainability. The ideal business travel experience in 2035 will be a seamless journey from start to finish, making business travel a pleasure rather than a chore.

The baseline scenario’s evolution is contingent on the absence of major disruptions that could significantly alter future projections. The Delphi panel examined four potential disruptions that could impact this trajectory: 1) Socio-political shifts that could reverse the current trend towards sustainability and Environmental, Social and Governance, 2) The potential for Artificial Intelligence to adversely affect travellers’ control over their plans and time, 3) The possibility of the ‘bleisure’ trend leading to a decrease in travel to less attractive destinations, and 4) The influence of geopolitical tensions. These disruptions, if they occur, could significantly reshape the landscape of business travel in 2035.

The first disruption, ‘Decreased support for sustainability/ESG’, envisions a future where the rise of populist and nationalist movements by 2030 erodes the global consensus on climate change and environmental issues, leading to a sharp decline in support for ESG regulations. This shift increases costs for ESG measures, prompting businesses and consumers to opt for cheaper, less sustainable alternatives. The travel and accommodation industries are severely impacted, with a decrease in business travel demand and a reduction in sustainable travel options. Many companies cut their travel budgets and switch to virtual meetings, while many service providers reduce their ESG initiatives or cease operations. The relaxation or abolition of standards and regulations leads to a deterioration in the quality and safety of services. Consequently, the sector loses its competitive edge, innovation potential, and customer loyalty, facing increased risks such as environmental degradation, social unrest, and ethical dilemmas.

The effects of the ‘AI control of travel’ disruption could be significant. AI prioritising efficiency and cost over personal preferences in travel arrangements could lead to a perceived loss of control over business travel decisions, resulting in disappointment and stress among travellers. The strategic response should be multifaceted. Understanding and catering to employees’ needs through profiling, improving the AI system by taking reviews into account, and providing guidance to support employees in using AI properly could be effective strategies. It would also be important to continue investing in AI and to consider the potential impact of AI on the travel industry. Focusing on employee satisfaction and engagement, refining the algorithm to better cater to individual needs, and the importance of user feedback should also be considered.

The ‘Business travel preferences’ disruption could lead to significant challenges for cities lacking in cultural, natural, and lifestyle appeal. By 2030, as business travelers become more selective, these cities could see a decline in business travel demand. This could result in a decrease in accommodation options and a deterioration in the quality and diversity of services. Strategic responses could involve brand building, community involvement, service innovation, and strategic focus to regain attractiveness for hotels in these cities. However, the effectiveness of these strategies would depend on the specific circumstances and characteristics of each city.

The ‘Geopolitical insecurity’ disruption could lead to significant challenges by 2030. Escalating geopolitical tensions and conflicts could make business travel more difficult, risky, and costly. Isolation of certain countries and hostility with Western powers could disrupt trade and travel flows, increasing costs and barriers for doing business. This could negatively impact the travel and accommodation sector, leading to a loss of a significant market and increased security and regulatory challenges. In regions with escalating violent conflicts, frequent disruptions in oil supply could cause chaos and uncertainty, decreasing business travel demand. Increased pressure and competition in certain regions could lead to increased uncertainty and diversity in the travel and accommodation sector, but also opportunities for innovation and competitiveness. Strategic responses should involve security and risk management, business strategy and operations, brand and product development, employee and supplier management, portfolio diversification and self-sufficiency, safety training and skills, service provision and pricing, and collaboration and network expansion.

In response to evolving trends and uncertainties, hospitality businesses and professionals should focus on two overarching strategies: personalising services and monitoring early warning signals. Personalised services should cater to changing preferences of business travellers, combining leisure and sustainability aspects. Monitoring early warning signals will enable businesses to adapt to disruptions and leverage opportunities in a timely manner.

This report provides the global community of hospitality professionals with critical insights into emerging trends and developments, with a particular focus on the future of business travel. Business travellers play a pivotal role within the tourism industry, contributing significantly to international travel, GDP, and business revenues.

In light of recent disruptions and evolving challenges, this forward-looking study aims not only to reflect on the past but, more importantly, to anticipate future developments and uncertainties in the realm of business travel. By doing so, it offers strategic insights to help hospitality leaders navigate the ever-evolving landscape of the industry.

Key findings from the Yearly Outlook include:

• Recovery of International Travel: By 2024, international travel arrivals have surpassed 2019 levels by 2%, signalling a full recovery in the sector. In Amsterdam, there was a 13% decrease in business traveller numbers, offset by an increase in the average length of stay from 2.34 to 2.71 days. Notably, more business travellers opted for 3-star accommodations, marking a shift in preferences.

• Future of Business Travel: The report outlines a baseline scenario that predicts a sustainable, personalised, and seamless business travel experience by 2035. This future will likely be driven by AI integration, shifts in travel patterns—such as an increase in short-haul trips, longer stays combining business and leisure—and a growing focus on sustainability.

• Potential Disruptors: The study also analyses several potential disruptors to these trends. These include socio-political shifts that could reverse sustainability efforts, risks associated with AI-assisted travel, the decline of less attractive business destinations, and the impact of global geopolitical tensions.

The Yearly Outlook provides practical recommendations for hospitality professionals and tourism policymakers. These recommendations focus on building resilience, anticipating changes in business travel preferences, leveraging AI and technological advancements, and promoting sustainable practices within the industry.