All experience/knowledge comes from three sources: (1) perception, (2) the past (consolidated perception in memory, or mediated by "technology": stories, writing, photo, etc.), or (3) judgment/argument based on perception and past (analogy). There is something special going on with our 'judgments '. Our judgements are not only fooled on the basis of perceptual traces created in our brain, as shown in perceptual illusions when we see or hear things that are not actually shown, it also seems that our two hemispheres judge differently. Optimization through analysis and numerical insight may not be the best strategy, certainly not when judging in the context of forecasting. And that while all our knowledge can again be traced back to three sources, perception, past (consolidated perception) and judgment.