Rembang Regency is one of the regencies in Central Java that often experiences drought. Based on the results of the mapping of drought-prone areas for 2020 carried out by the Rembang Regency government, there are 63 villages spread across 14 sub-districts, 18,885 families are recorded as experiencing drought. Kaliori District is one of the sub-districts in Rembang Regency that is affected by drought, this sub-district consists of 23 villages and is directly adjacent to the north of Java Sea. The purpose of this research is to be able to do a mapping for planning sustainable drought solutions, obtain quantitative data on drought and stages of drought management. The stages of the research carried out were site surveys and interviews related to drought in the Kaliori area. Prior to the Focus Group Discussion (FGD), a questionnaire was prepared. This research was conducted through joint FGD with all village heads in Kaliori District regarding water drought in Rembang. Based on the FGD and the statistical analysis results, it was found that 70% of Kaliori District experienced drought. When there is a drought, generally villages in Kaliori sub-district use water from water tanks and some use wells of poor quality and having a salty taste. The majority of villages in Kaliori Sub-district experienced a drought that lasted for 4-5 months of a year. Several parties involved in dealing with drought in Kaliori Sub-district included PAMSIMAS, Karang Taruna, Banser, Paguyuban, and P3A. Some solutions proposed are river connection, estuary river gate, and reservoir optimation.
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In Eastern Africa, increasing climate variability and changing socioeconomic conditions are exacerbating the frequency and intensity of drought disasters. Droughts pose a severe threat to food security in this region, which is characterized by a large dependency on smallholder rain-fed agriculture and a low level of technological development in the food production systems. Future drought risk will be determined by the adaptation choices made by farmers, yet few drought risk models … incorporate adaptive behavior in the estimation of drought risk. Here, we present an innovative dynamic drought risk adaptation model, ADOPT, to evaluate the factors that influence adaptation decisions and the subsequent adoption of measures, and how this affects drought risk for agricultural production. ADOPT combines socio-hydrological and agent-based modeling approaches by coupling the FAO crop model AquacropOS with a behavioral model capable of simulating different adaptive behavioral theories. In this paper, we compare the protection motivation theory, which describes bounded rationality, with a business-as-usual and an economic rational adaptive behavior. The inclusion of these scenarios serves to evaluate and compare the effect of different assumptions about adaptive behavior on the evolution of drought risk over time. Applied to a semi-arid case in Kenya, ADOPT is parameterized using field data collected from 250 households in the Kitui region and discussions with local decision-makers. The results show that estimations of drought risk and the need for emergency food aid can be improved using an agent-based approach: we show that ignoring individual household characteristics leads to an underestimation of food-aid needs. Moreover, we show that the bounded rational scenario is better able to reflect historic food security, poverty levels, and crop yields. Thus, we demonstrate that the reality of complex human adaptation decisions can best be described assuming bounded rational adaptive behavior; furthermore, an agent-based approach and the choice of adaptation theory matter when quantifying risk and estimating emergency aid needs.
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Swales are widely used Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SuDS) that can reduce peak flow, collect and retain water and improve groundwater recharge. Most previous research has focused on the unsaturated infiltration rates of swales without considering the variation in infiltration rates under extreme climate events, such as multiple stormwater events after a long drought period. Therefore, fieldwork was carried out to collect hydraulic data of three swales under drought conditions followed by high precipitation. For this simulation, a new full-scale infiltration method was used to simulate five rainfall events filling up the total storage volume of the swales under drought conditions. The results were then compared to earlier research under regular circumstances. The results of this study show that three swales situated in the same street show a variation in initial infiltration capacity of 1.6 to 11.9 m/d and show higher infiltration rates under drought conditions. The saturated infiltration rate is up to a factor 4 lower than the initial unsaturated rate with a minimal rate of 0.5 m/d, close to the minimum required infiltration rate. Significant spatial and time variable infiltration rates are also found at similar research locations with multiple green infrastructures in close range. If the unsaturated infiltration capacity is used as the design input for computer models, the infiltration capacity may be significantly overestimated. The innovative method and the results of this study should help stormwater managers to test, model, plan and schedule maintenance requirements with more confidence, so that they will continue to perform satisfactorily over their intended design lifespan.
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Most research on hydrological risks focuses either on flood risk or drought risk, whilst floods and droughts are two extremes of the same hydrological cycle. To better design disaster risk reduction (DRR) measures and strategies, it is important to consider interactions between these closely linked phenomena. We show examples of: (a) how flood or drought DRR measures can have (unintended) positive or negative impacts on risk of the opposite hazard; and (b) how flood or drought DRR measures can be negatively impacted by the opposite hazard. We focus on dikes and levees, dams, stormwater control and upstream measures, subsurface storage, migration, agricultural practices, and vulnerability and preparedness. We identify key challenges for moving towards a more holistic risk management approach.
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Both climate change and human activity are the important drivers that can change hydrological cycle routs and affect the features of hydrological drought in river basins. The current study selects the Zayandeh Rud river Basin as a case study region in which to evaluate the influences of climate alteration and human activity on meteorological and hydrological drought based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) on different time scales. The generated local climatic data of future years (2006–2040), (2041–2075) and (2076–2100) under the severest scenario (RCP 8.5) from the CMIP5 climate model are selected and used for the hydrology model and water allocation model of WEAP to construct hydrological drought which also consider human activities. The results indicate that significant meteorological drought is expected to occur in the winter and spring months of January to June. However, the driest month for hydrological drought is in the summer and autumn (July to December) (e.g. no changes in seasonality of droughts compared to historic period). It is concluded that, in the results of this work, the human influences on projected hydrological drought have been outlined; they had been missed in many projections for future hydrological drought. However, this study confirms the previous study (Bierkens et al. 2012) which mentioned that human influences can account for future hydrological drought in areas of Asia, the Middle East and the Mediterranean. The results attained in this study are beneficial for examining how hydrological drought characterizations respond to climate alteration and human activity on several time scales, thereby providing scientific information for drought predicting and water resources management over various time scales under non-stationary circumstances.
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European Union’s vulnerability to climate change stretches far beyond its borders because many of its economic sectors, such as meat and dairy, use raw materials sourced from far afield. Cross-border climate vulnerability is a relatively new subject in scientific literature, while of high societal and economic relevance. We quantify these climate vulnerabilities with a focus on drought risk and assessed them for 2030, 2050, 2085 and for RCP 2.6 and 6.0 climate scenarios. Here we find that more than 44% of the EU agricultural imports will become highly vulnerable to drought in future because of climate change. The drought severity in production locations of the agricultural imports in 2050 will increase by 35% compared to current levels of drought severity. This is particularly valid for imports that originate from Brazil, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, India and Turkey. At the same time, imports from Russia, Nigeria, Peru, Ecuador, Uganda and Kenya will be less vulnerable in future. We also report that the climate vulnerabilities of meat and dairy, chocolate (cocoa), coffee, palm oil-based food and cosmetic sectors mainly lie outside the EU borders rather than inside.
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More frequently occurring droughts, related to climate change, lead to reduced growth and loss of vitality in trees. The recent drought of 2018 was extreme, long-lasting and resulted in high evaporative demands due to the concurrent high temperatures. The aim of this study was to compare the drought resilience of nine temperate tree species in the Netherlands, and to determine their responses to the severe drought of 2018 in comparison with five earlier drought events since 1970. To assess drought effects on tree species, we analysed tree-ring series of 678 trees in 45 plots throughout the Netherlands. Resilience indices were calculated based on growth reactions and growth recovery after drought. Furthermore, the impact of drought events on species productivity was quantified. We observed species-specific differences in growth responses to drought timing. All species in nearly all sites responded with growth reductions to drought, except sessile oak (Quercus petraea (Matt.) Liebl.). The most productive species in our study were found to be drought sensitive, with productivity losses of up to 30 % during drought in some sites. Productivity losses were highest on the driest soils. Resilience to the 2018 drought did not differ significantly from other drought years for six out of the nine studied species. However, 77.5 % of the individual trees of all studied species did not fully recover in growth within the following two years. Low post-drought growth remains poorly understood and should be taken into account in future studies to safeguard the health and productivity of the forest under climate change. We consider sessile oak a promising species for future forests in the Netherlands. Based on our results, we provide an outlook on future resilience and growth potential of the species studied under projected climate change for the Netherlands.
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Abstract: Climate change is related with weather extremes, which may cause damages to infrastructure used by freight transport services. Heavy rainfall may lead to flooding and damage to railway lines, roads and inland waterways. Extreme drought may lead to extremely low water levels, which prevent safe navigation by inland barges. Wet and dry periods may alternate, leaving little time to repair damages. In some Western and Middle-European countries, barges have a large share in freight transport. If a main waterway is out of service, then alternatives are called for. Volume- and price-wise, trucking is not a viable alternative. Could railways be that alternative? The paper was written after the unusually long dry summer period in Europe in 2022. It deals with the question: If the Rhine, a major European waterway becomes locally inaccessible, could railways (temporarily) play a larger role in freight transport? It is a continuation of our earlier research. It contains a case study, the data of which was fed into a simulation model. The model deals with technical details like service specification route length, energy consumption and emissions. The study points to interesting rail services to keep Europe’s freight on the move. Their realization may be complex especially in terms of logistics and infrastructure, but is there an alternative?
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In case of a major cyber incident, organizations usually rely on external providers of Cyber Incident Response (CIR) services. CIR consultants operate in a dynamic and constantly changing environment in which they must actively engage in information management and problem solving while adapting to complex circumstances. In this challenging environment CIR consultants need to make critical decisions about what to advise clients that are impacted by a major cyber incident. Despite its relevance, CIR decision making is an understudied topic. The objective of this preliminary investigation is therefore to understand what decision-making strategies experienced CIR consultants use during challenging incidents and to offer suggestions for training and decision-aiding. A general understanding of operational decision making under pressure, uncertainty, and high stakes was established by reviewing the body of knowledge known as Naturalistic Decision Making (NDM). The general conclusion of NDM research is that experts usually make adequate decisions based on (fast) recognition of the situation and applying the most obvious (default) response pattern that has worked in similar situations in the past. In exceptional situations, however, this way of recognition-primed decision-making results in suboptimal decisions as experts are likely to miss conflicting cues once the situation is quickly recognized under pressure. Understanding the default response pattern and the rare occasions in which this response pattern could be ineffective is therefore key for improving and aiding cyber incident response decision making. Therefore, we interviewed six experienced CIR consultants and used the critical decision method (CDM) to learn how they made decisions under challenging conditions. The main conclusion is that the default response pattern for CIR consultants during cyber breaches is to reduce uncertainty as much as possible by gathering and investigating data and thus delay decision making about eradication until the investigation is completed. According to the respondents, this strategy usually works well and provides the most assurance that the threat actor can be completely removed from the network. However, the majority of respondents could recall at least one case in which this strategy (in hindsight) resulted in unnecessary theft of data or damage. Interestingly, this finding is strikingly different from other operational decision-making domains such as the military, police and fire service in which there is a general tendency to act rapidly instead of searching for more information. The main advice is that training and decision aiding of (novice) cyber incident responders should be aimed at the following: (a) make cyber incident responders aware of how recognition-primed decision making works; (b) discuss the default response strategy that typically works well in several scenarios; (c) explain the exception and how the exception can be recognized; (d) provide alternative response strategies that work better in exceptional situations.
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