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Lessons From A Transition To Circular Use Of Wood In Utrecht

In our in-depth case study on two circular business models we found important roles for material scouts and networks. These key partners are essential for establishing circular business models and circular flow of materials. Besides, we diagnose that companies are having difficulties to develop viable value propositions and circular strategies. The paper was presented at NBM Nijmegen 2020 and will be published at a later date

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Lessons From A Transition To Circular Use Of Wood In Utrecht

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Exploring Characteristics of Regenerative Business Models through a Delphi-Inspired Approach

Amidst escalating environmental and social challenges, this study explores regenerative business models’ definition and characteristics. While sustainable models have made considerable strides in research, policy, and practice, the advent of regenerative business models offers a progressive leap forward. Regenerative business models aspire to contribute to ecological restoration and societal well-being. The regenerative business model concept is, however, still in its infancy and lacks a comprehensive definition. Our study aims to expand this knowledge, using a Delphi-inspired approach that builds on the knowledge of academic and business experts. Our approach includes three rounds of surveys: an open-ended survey, a survey for rating and ranking the earlier responses of all participants, and a final survey to select key characteristics. We investigate patterns and distinctions among regenerative, regenerative business, and regenerative business models, and analyze their positioning vis-a-vis circular and net-positive models. Findings underscore that organizations adopting regenerative business models focus on planetary health and societal well-being. They generate value across multiple stakeholder levels, including nature, societies, customers, suppliers, shareholders, and employees. Despite overlapping with circular and net-positive models, regenerative business models also emphasize interdependencies between humans and nature, and provide a more holistic approach, centered on restoration rather than mere mitigation.

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Exploring Characteristics of Regenerative Business Models through a Delphi-Inspired Approach

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The Path To Entrepreneurship: Searching And Learning From Role Models

In this study, we address the function of role models for entrepreneurship students. By using entrepreneurs as role models, students can get a better and realistic picture of the complexity of the entrepreneurial path. Choosing whom to interview as role model can be diverse, but it can be problematic if, as a result of that choice, the learning effect in the same group of students is different.

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The Path To Entrepreneurship: Searching And Learning From Role Models

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Building and building systems energy prediction models to enhance energy flexibility control

The built environment requires energy-flexible buildings to reduce energy peak loads and to maximize the use of (decentralized) renewable energy sources. The challenge is to arrive at smart control strategies that respond to the increasing variations in both the energy demand as well as the variable energy supply. This enables grid integration in existing energy networks with limited capacity and maximises use of decentralized sustainable generation. Buildings can play a key role in the optimization of the grid capacity by applying demand-side management control. To adjust the grid energy demand profile of a building without compromising the user requirements, the building should acquire some energy flexibility capacity. The main ambition of the Brains for Buildings Work Package 2 is to develop smart control strategies that use the operational flexibility of non-residential buildings to minimize energy costs, reduce emissions and avoid spikes in power network load, without compromising comfort levels. To realise this ambition the following key components will be developed within the B4B WP2: (A) Development of open-source HVAC and electric services models, (B) development of energy demand prediction models and (C) development of flexibility management control models. This report describes the developed first two key components, (A) and (B). This report presents different prediction models covering various building components. The models are from three different types: white box models, grey-box models, and black-box models. Each model developed is presented in a different chapter. The chapters start with the goal of the prediction model, followed by the description of the model and the results obtained when applied to a case study. The models developed are two approaches based on white box models (1) White box models based on Modelica libraries for energy prediction of a building and its components and (2) Hybrid predictive digital twin based on white box building models to predict the dynamic energy response of the building and its components. (3) Using CO₂ monitoring data to derive either ventilation flow rate or occupancy. (4) Prediction of the heating demand of a building. (5) Feedforward neural network model to predict the building energy usage and its uncertainty. (6) Prediction of PV solar production. The first model aims to predict the energy use and energy production pattern of different building configurations with open-source software, OpenModelica, and open-source libraries, IBPSA libraries. The white-box model simulation results are used to produce design and control advice for increasing the building energy flexibility. The use of the libraries for making a model has first been tested in a simple residential unit, and now is being tested in a non-residential unit, the Haagse Hogeschool building. The lessons learned show that it is possible to model a building by making use of a combination of libraries, however the development of the model is very time consuming. The test also highlighted the need for defining standard scenarios to test the energy flexibility and the need for a practical visualization if the simulation results are to be used to give advice about potential increase of the energy flexibility. The goal of the hybrid model, which is based on a white based model for the building and systems and a data driven model for user behaviour, is to predict the energy demand and energy supply of a building. The model's application focuses on the use case of the TNO building at Stieltjesweg in Delft during a summer period, with a specific emphasis on cooling demand. Preliminary analysis shows that the monitoring results of the building behaviour is in line with the simulation results. Currently, development is in progress to improve the model predictions by including the solar shading from surrounding buildings, models of automatic shading devices, and model calibration including the energy use of the chiller. The goal of the third model is to derive recent and current ventilation flow rate over time based on monitoring data on CO₂ concentration and occupancy, as well as deriving recent and current occupancy over time, based on monitoring data on CO₂ concentration and ventilation flow rate. The grey-box model used is based on the GEKKO python tool. The model was tested with the data of 6 Windesheim University of Applied Sciences office rooms. The model had low precision deriving the ventilation flow rate, especially at low CO2 concentration rates. The model had a good precision deriving occupancy from CO₂ concentration and ventilation flow rate. Further research is needed to determine if these findings apply in different situations, such as meeting spaces and classrooms. The goal of the fourth chapter is to compare the working of a simplified white box model and black-box model to predict the heating energy use of a building. The aim is to integrate these prediction models in the energy management system of SME buildings. The two models have been tested with data from a residential unit since at the time of the analysis the data of a SME building was not available. The prediction models developed have a low accuracy and in their current form cannot be integrated in an energy management system. In general, black-box model prediction obtained a higher accuracy than the white box model. The goal of the fifth model is to predict the energy use in a building using a black-box model and measure the uncertainty in the prediction. The black-box model is based on a feed-forward neural network. The model has been tested with the data of two buildings: educational and commercial buildings. The strength of the model is in the ensemble prediction and the realization that uncertainty is intrinsically present in the data as an absolute deviation. Using a rolling window technique, the model can predict energy use and uncertainty, incorporating possible building-use changes. The testing in two different cases demonstrates the applicability of the model for different types of buildings. The goal of the sixth and last model developed is to predict the energy production of PV panels in a building with the use of a black-box model. The choice for developing the model of the PV panels is based on the analysis of the main contributors of the peak energy demand and peak energy delivery in the case of the DWA office building. On a fault free test set, the model meets the requirements for a calibrated model according to the FEMP and ASHRAE criteria for the error metrics. According to the IPMVP criteria the model should be improved further. The results of the performance metrics agree in range with values as found in literature. For accurate peak prediction a year of training data is recommended in the given approach without lagged variables. This report presents the results and lessons learned from implementing white-box, grey-box and black-box models to predict energy use and energy production of buildings or of variables directly related to them. Each of the models has its advantages and disadvantages. Further research in this line is needed to develop the potential of this approach.

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People 10

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Alican Noyan

Senior Lecturer in Applied Data Science and AI

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Annemiek van der Schaft

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Frans Melissen

Transversal Professor of Sustainability Transitions

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Geert Lovink

Full Professor

Projects 80

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A mindset for the emergence of a culture of economic wellbeing

The transition towards an economy of wellbeing is complex, systemic, dynamic and uncertain. Individuals and organizations struggle to connect with and embrace their changing context. They need to create a mindset for the emergence of a culture of economic well-being. This requires a paradigm shift in the way reality is constructed. This emergence begins with the mindset of each individual, starting bottom-up. A mindset of economic well-being is built using agency, freedom, and responsibility to understand personal values, the multi-identity self, the mental models, and the individual context. A culture is created by waving individual mindsets together and allowing shared values, and new stories for their joint context to emerge. It is from this place of connection with the self and the other, that individuals' intrinsic motivation to act is found to engage in the transitions towards an economy of well-being. This project explores this theoretical framework further. Businesses play a key role in the transition toward an economy of well-being; they are instrumental in generating multiple types of value and redefining growth. They are key in the creation of the resilient world needed to respond to the complex and uncertain of our era. Varta-Valorisatielab, De-Kleine-Aarde, and Het Groene Brein are frontrunner organizations that understand their impact and influence. They are making bold strategic choices to lead their organizations towards an economy of well-being. Unfortunately, they often experience resistance from stakeholders. To address this resistance, the consortium in the proposal seeks to answer the research question: How can individuals who connect with their multi-identity-self, (via personal values, mental models, and personal context) develop a mindset of well-being that enables them to better connect with their stakeholders (the other) and together address the transitional needs of their collective context for the emergence of a culture of the economy of wellbeing?

Ongoing

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AI-enhanced Data Analysis

Developing a framework that integrates Advanced Language Models into the qualitative research process.Qualitative research, vital for understanding complex phenomena, is often limited by labour-intensive data collection, transcription, and analysis processes. This hinders scalability, accessibility, and efficiency in both academic and industry contexts. As a result, insights are often delayed or incomplete, impacting decision-making, policy development, and innovation. The lack of tools to enhance accuracy and reduce human error exacerbates these challenges, particularly for projects requiring large datasets or quick iterations. Addressing these inefficiencies through AI-driven solutions like AIDA can empower researchers, enhance outcomes, and make qualitative research more inclusive, impactful, and efficient.The AIDA project enhances qualitative research by integrating AI technologies to streamline transcription, coding, and analysis processes. This innovation enables researchers to analyse larger datasets with greater efficiency and accuracy, providing faster and more comprehensive insights. By reducing manual effort and human error, AIDA empowers organisations to make informed decisions and implement evidence-based policies more effectively. Its scalability supports diverse societal and industry applications, from healthcare to market research, fostering innovation and addressing complex challenges. Ultimately, AIDA contributes to improving research quality, accessibility, and societal relevance, driving advancements across multiple sectors.

Ongoing

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AUTOmated CAN variables lDentification tool (AUTOCAN-lD)

The maximum capacity of the road infrastructure is being reached due to the number of vehicles that are being introduced on Dutch roads each day. One of the plausible solutions to tackle congestion could be efficient and effective use of road infrastructure using modern technologies such as cooperative mobility. Cooperative mobility relies majorly on big data that is generated potentially by millions of vehicles that are travelling on the road. But how can this data be generated? Modern vehicles already contain a host of sensors that are required for its operation. This data is typically circulated within an automobile via the CAN bus and can in-principle be shared with the outside world considering the privacy aspects of data sharing. The main problem is, however, the difficulty in interpreting this data. This is mainly because the configuration of this data varies between manufacturers and vehicle models and have not been standardized by the manufacturers. Signals from the CAN bus could be manually reverse engineered, but this process is extremely labour-intensive and time-consuming. In this project we investigate if an intelligent tool or specific test procedures could be developed to extract CAN messages and their composition efficiently irrespective of vehicle brand and type. This would lay the foundations that are required to generate big data-sets from in-vehicle data efficiently.

Finished

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Certification of production process quality through Artificial Intelligence (CERTIF-AI)

Production processes can be made ‘smarter’ by exploiting the data streams that are generated by the machines that are used in production. In particular these data streams can be mined to build a model of the production process as it was really executed – as opposed to how it was envisioned. This model can subsequently be analyzed and stress-tested to explore possible causes of production prob-lems and to analyze what-if scenarios, without disrupting the production process itself. It has been shown that such models can successfully be used to diagnose possible causes of production problems, including scrap products and machine defects. Ideally, they can even be used to model and analyze production processes that have not been implemented yet, based on data from existing production pro-cesses and techniques from artificial intelligence that can predict how the new process is likely to be-have in practice in terms of data that its machines generate. This is especially important in mass cus-tomization processes, where the process to create each product may be unique, and can only feasibly be tested using model- and data-driven techniques like the one proposed in this project. Against this background, the goal of this project is to develop a method and toolkit for mining, mod-elling and analyzing production processes, using the time series data that is generated by machines, to: (i) analyze the performance of an existing production process; (ii) diagnose causes of production prob-lems; and (iii) certify that a new – not yet implemented – production process leads to high-quality products. The method is developed by researching and combining techniques from the area of Artificial Intelli-gence with techniques from Operations Research. In particular, it uses: process mining to relate time series data to production processes; queueing networks to determine likely paths through the produc-tion processes and detect anomalies that may be the cause of production problems; and generative adversarial networks to generate likely future production scenarios and sample scenarios of production problems for diagnostic purposes. The techniques will be evaluated and adapted in implementations at the partners from industry, using a design science approach. In particular, implementations of the method are made for: explaining production problems; explaining machine defects; and certifying the correct operation of new production processes.

Ongoing

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CO2Cap - CO2 from air capturing via a modified Schauberger system

Climate change is one of the most critical global challenges nowadays. Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration brought by anthropogenic emissions has been recognized as the primary driver of global warming. Therefore, currently, there is a strong demand within the chemical and chemical technology industry for systems that can covert, capture and reuse/recover CO2. Few examples can be seen in the literature: Hamelers et al (2013) presented systems that can use CO2 aqueous solutions to produce energy using electrochemical cells with porous electrodes; Legrand et al (2018) has proven that CDI can be used to capture CO2 without solvents; Shu et al (2020) have used electrochemical systems to desorb (recover) CO2 from an alkaline absorbent with low energy demand. Even though many efforts have been done, there is still demand for efficient and market-ready systems, especially related to solvent-free CO2 capturing systems. This project intends to assess a relatively efficient technology, with low-energy costs which can change the CO2 capturing market. This technology is called whorlpipe. The whorlpipe, developed by Viktor Schauberger, has shown already promising results in reducing the energy and CO2 emissions for water pumping. Recently, studies conducted by Wetsus and NHL Stenden (under submission), in combination with different companies (also members in this proposal) have shown that vortices like systems, like the Schauberger funnel, and thus “whorlpipe”, can be fluid dynamically represented using Taylor-Couette flows. This means that such systems have a strong tendency to form vortices like fluid-patterns close to their air-water interface. Such flow system drastically increase advection. Combined with their higher area to volume ratio, which increases diffusion, these systems can greatly enhance gas capturing (in liquids), and are, thus, a unique opportunity for CO2 uptake from the air, i.e. competing with systems like conventional scrubbers or bubble-based aeration.

Finished

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Collaborative Networks for Sustainability (CONESU)

Collaborative networks for sustainability are emerging rapidly to address urgent societal challenges. By bringing together organizations with different knowledge bases, resources and capabilities, collaborative networks enhance information exchange, knowledge sharing and learning opportunities to address these complex problems that cannot be solved by organizations individually. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the apparel sector, where examples of collaborative networks for sustainability are plenty, for example Sustainable Apparel Coalition, Zero Discharge Hazardous Chemicals, and the Fair Wear Foundation. Companies like C&A and H&M but also smaller players join these networks to take their social responsibility. Collaborative networks are unlike traditional forms of organizations; they are loosely structured collectives of different, often competing organizations, with dynamic membership and usually lack legal status. However, they do not emerge or organize on their own; they need network orchestrators who manage the network in terms of activities and participants. But network orchestrators face many challenges. They have to balance the interests of diverse companies and deal with tensions that often arise between them, like sharing their innovative knowledge. Orchestrators also have to “sell” the value of the network to potential new participants, who make decisions about which networks to join based on the benefits they expect to get from participating. Network orchestrators often do not know the best way to maintain engagement, commitment and enthusiasm or how to ensure knowledge and resource sharing, especially when competitors are involved. Furthermore, collaborative networks receive funding from grants or subsidies, creating financial uncertainty about its continuity. Raising financing from the private sector is difficult and network orchestrators compete more and more for resources. When networks dissolve or dysfunction (due to a lack of value creation and capture for participants, a lack of financing or a non-functioning business model), the collective value that has been created and accrued over time may be lost. This is problematic given that industrial transformations towards sustainability take many years and durable organizational forms are required to ensure ongoing support for this change. Network orchestration is a new profession. There are no guidelines, handbooks or good practices for how to perform this role, nor is there professional education or a professional association that represents network orchestrators. This is urgently needed as network orchestrators struggle with their role in governing networks so that they create and capture value for participants and ultimately ensure better network performance and survival. This project aims to foster the professionalization of the network orchestrator role by: (a) generating knowledge, developing and testing collaborative network governance models, facilitation tools and collaborative business modeling tools to enable network orchestrators to improve the performance of collaborative networks in terms of collective value creation (network level) and private value capture (network participant level) (b) organizing platform activities for network orchestrators to exchange ideas, best practices and learn from each other, thereby facilitating the formation of a professional identity, standards and community of network orchestrators.

Finished

Parties 1

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Business Models

Lectorate

Products 5.448

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Lessons From A Transition To Circular Use Of Wood In Utrecht

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Exploring Characteristics of Regenerative Business Models through a Delphi-Inspired Approach

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The Path To Entrepreneurship: Searching And Learning From Role Models

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Building and building systems energy prediction models to enhance energy flexibility control

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