In Eastern Africa, increasing climate variability and changing socioeconomic conditions are exacerbating the frequency and intensity of drought disasters. Droughts pose a severe threat to food security in this region, which is characterized by a large dependency on smallholder rain-fed agriculture and a low level of technological development in the food production systems. Future drought risk will be determined by the adaptation choices made by farmers, yet few drought risk models … incorporate adaptive behavior in the estimation of drought risk. Here, we present an innovative dynamic drought risk adaptation model, ADOPT, to evaluate the factors that influence adaptation decisions and the subsequent adoption of measures, and how this affects drought risk for agricultural production. ADOPT combines socio-hydrological and agent-based modeling approaches by coupling the FAO crop model AquacropOS with a behavioral model capable of simulating different adaptive behavioral theories. In this paper, we compare the protection motivation theory, which describes bounded rationality, with a business-as-usual and an economic rational adaptive behavior. The inclusion of these scenarios serves to evaluate and compare the effect of different assumptions about adaptive behavior on the evolution of drought risk over time. Applied to a semi-arid case in Kenya, ADOPT is parameterized using field data collected from 250 households in the Kitui region and discussions with local decision-makers. The results show that estimations of drought risk and the need for emergency food aid can be improved using an agent-based approach: we show that ignoring individual household characteristics leads to an underestimation of food-aid needs. Moreover, we show that the bounded rational scenario is better able to reflect historic food security, poverty levels, and crop yields. Thus, we demonstrate that the reality of complex human adaptation decisions can best be described assuming bounded rational adaptive behavior; furthermore, an agent-based approach and the choice of adaptation theory matter when quantifying risk and estimating emergency aid needs.
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Why are risk decisions sometimes rather irrational and biased than rational and effective? Can we educate and train vocational students and professionals in safety and security management to let them make smarter risk decisions? This paper starts with a theoretical and practical analysis. From research literature and theory we develop a two-phase process model of biased risk decision making, focussing on two critical professional competences: risk intelligence and risk skill. Risk intelligence applies to risk analysis on a mainly cognitive level, whereas risk skill covers the application of risk intelligence in the ultimate phase of risk decision making: whether or not a professional risk manager decides to intervene, how and how well. According to both phases of risk analysis and risk decision making the main problems are described and illustrated with examples from safety and security practice. It seems to be all about systematically biased reckoning and reasoning.
The composition of diets and supplements given to bovine cattle are constantly evolving. These changes are driven by the social call for a more sustainable beef and dairy production, interests to influence the nutritional value of bovine products for human consumption, and to increase animal health. These adaptations can introduce (new) compounds in the beef and milk supply chain. Currently, the golden standard to study transfer of compounds from feed or veterinary medicine to cows and consequences for human health is performing animal studies, which are time consuming, costly and thus limited. Although animal studies are increasingly debated for ethical reasons, cows are still in the top 10 list of most used animals for animal experiments in Europe. There is, however, no widely applicable alternative modelling tool available to rapidly predict transfer of compounds, apart from individual components like cattle kinetic models and simple in vitro kinetic assays. Therefore, this project aims to develop a first-of-a-kind generic bovine kinetic modelling platform that predicts the transfer of compounds from medicine/supplements and feed to bovine tissues. This will provide new tools for the efficacy and safety evaluation of veterinary medicine and feed and facilitates a rapid evaluation of human health effects of bovine origin food products, thereby contributing to an increased safety in the cattle production chain and supporting product innovations, all without animal testing. This will be accomplished by integrating existing in silico and in vitro techniques into a generic bovine modelling platform and further developing state-of-the-art in vitro bovine organoid cell culturing systems. The platform can be used world-wide by stakeholders involved in the cattle industry (feed-/veterinary medicine industry, regulators, risk assessors). The project partners involve a strong combination of academia, knowledge institutes, small and medium enterprises, industry, branche-organisations and Proefdiervrij, all driven by their pursuit for animal free innovations.
Possibly, the aviation sector’s decarbonization challenge (see Dutch knowledge key in international climate study for tourism | CELTH) has profound implications for the ability of aviation-de-pendent outbound tour operators to attract capital and with that their ability to maintain or trans-form their current business portfolio (understood here as the current product offers and approximate carbon footprints, business models, and ownership structures present in this economic do-main). Knowledge about these (possible) investment risks and their business and policy implications is lacking. This project therefore addresses this knowledge gap by means of the following research questions.1. What is the current business portfolio of Dutch outbound tour operators?a. To what extend do Dutch outbound tour operators depend on aviation in terms of product offer and turnover?b. What is the relative carbon footprint share of aviation-based products compared to the total outbound product offer and turnover of Dutch outbound tour operators?2. What are investment risks of this business portfolio as indicated by investors?a. How do investors evaluate investment risks in relation to climate change mitigation and de-carbonisation?b. What are investment risks of the business portfolio of Dutch outbound tour operators?c. What are the reflections on and implications of these investment risks from the perspective of policymakers and tour operators?
The postdoc candidate, Sondos Saad, will strengthen connections between research groups Asset Management(AM), Data Science(DS) and Civil Engineering bachelor programme(CE) of HZ. The proposed research aims at deepening the knowledge about the complex multidisciplinary performance deterioration prediction of turbomachinery to optimize cleaning costs, decrease failure risk and promote the efficient use of water &energy resources. It targets the key challenges faced by industries, oil &gas refineries, utility companies in the adoption of circular maintenance. The study of AM is already part of CE curriculum, but the ambition of this postdoc is that also AM principles are applied and visible. Therefore, from the first year of the programme, the postdoc will develop an AM material science line and will facilitate applied research experiences for students, in collaboration with engineering companies, operation &maintenance contractors and governmental bodies. Consequently, a new generation of efficient sustainability sensitive civil engineers could be trained, as the labour market requires. The subject is broad and relevant for the future of our built environment being more sustainable with less CO2 footprint, with possible connections with other fields of study, such as Engineering, Economics &Chemistry. The project is also strongly contributing to the goals of the National Science Agenda(NWA), in themes of “Circulaire economie en grondstoffenefficiëntie”,”Meten en detecteren: altijd, alles en overall” &”Smart Industry”. The final products will be a framework for data-driven AM to determine and quantify key parameters of degradation in performance for predictive AM strategies, for the application as a diagnostic decision-support toolbox for optimizing cleaning &maintenance; a portfolio of applications &examples; and a new continuous learning line about AM within CE curriculum. The postdoc will be mentored and supervised by the Lector of AM research group and by the study programme coordinator(SPC). The personnel policy and job function series of HZ facilitates the development opportunity.
