Significant factors in the success or failure of energy transition arise from the spatial potential of places and their communities. Scenario planning appears to be an appropriate design instrument to enable architects to unveil, conceptualise, imagine, test and communicate this potential to stakeholders. This paper critically refelcts on the scenario as an architectural design instrument. Inscribed with political intentions, scenario planning may be a far from neutral design instrument. Instead of triggering communities to explore local energy potential, a scenario may have a normative effect on a community's imagination. The paper aims to define guidelines for the deployment of scenarios in an open, participatory planning process. To mediate in a local participatory planning process, we argue, scenarios should be situational, dynamic and open-ended, allowing or even triggering communities to (re)define the issues relevant to a place during the ongoing process of energy-transition. How, when and where should scenarios be deployed in order to enable communities to understand and develop their local energy potential?
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By use of a literature review and an environmental scan four plausible future scenarios will be created, based on the research question: How could the future of backpack tourism look like in 2030, and how could tourism businesses anticipate on the changing demand. The scenarios, which allow one to ‘think out of the box’, will eventually be translated into recommendations towards the tourism sector and therefore can create a future proof company strategy.
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The Maritime Spatial Planning (MSP) Challenge simulation platform helps planners and stakeholders understand and manage the complexity of MSP. In the interactive simulation, different data layers covering an entire sea region can be viewed to make an assessment of the current status. Users can create scenarios for future uses of the marine space over a period of several decades. Changes in energy infrastructure, shipping, and the marine environment are then simulated, and the effects are visualized using indicators and heat maps. The platform is built with advanced game technology and uses aspects of role-play to create interactive sessions; it can thus be referred to as serious gaming. To calculate and visualize the effects of planning decisions on the marine ecology, we integrated the Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) food web modeling approach into the platform. We demonstrate how EwE was connected to MSP, considering the range of constraints imposed by running scientific software in interactive serious gaming sessions while still providing cascading ecological feedback in response to planning actions. We explored the connection by adapting two published ecological models for use in MSP sessions. We conclude with lessons learned and identify future developments of the simulation platform.
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Studies on city‐building games as educational tools show positive results in addressing different learning objectives, but also identify a missing link to reality, as they are mostly computer‐based. Given the differences between existing games and their capabilities, the exact function of these games in an urban planning curriculum is unclear. The city‐building game Cities: Skylines currently has three different versions (Digital, Tabletop, VR). Through an affordance analysis of the game’s three versions, this study analyses how the versions afford four primary knowledge dimensions, and in doing so identifies different educational applications for each version of Cities: Skylines in different planning disciplines. The results show that: (a) the board game is strong in fostering player participation and critical thinking more suited for the social and health studies, public policy, and citizen participation domains of urban planning; (b) the digital version functions as moddable simulator, ensuring familiarity with existing systems and monitoring their effects, useful in logistics and transportation planning; (c) the VR form viscerally involves players in the simulated processes, applicable in design‐focused segments of urban planning, such as sustainable design theory, housing, and land‐use management. The results of this study can help urban planning educators identify possible uses for different versions of Cities: Skylines.
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In this study, Dutch and Australian planning regimes are examined to determine whether they are ready to face climate extremes. Five different “cultural” facets of spatial planning determine the differences between the two regimes. These planning characteristics are first confronted with current climate change. The Dutch planning regime performs better under these conditions than the Australian. Secondly, a suite of spatial scenarios is confronted with both current change and a changed risk landscape, in which climate extremes are introduced. Again, the performance of planning characteristics to deal with these new vulnerabilities is tested. For type-1 impacts, exaggerating current change, a limited number of Dutch planning characteristics still hold, where the majority of Australian planning properties is likely to lose functionality. Under type-2 impacts, surprising climate events, the Dutch approach is no longer sufficient, while some Australian characteristics suddenly imply opportunities. The sectored planning approach, together with culturally determined individual responses, might prove to offer solace, under the condition that dealing with extreme events is made priority. Overall, current regimes face difficulties in dealing with surprising climate events and a fundamentally different planning approach is required. Swarm Planning, which dynamically deals with uncertainty, is proposed as a beneficial new planning method.
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This research concerning the experience and future of zoos was carried out from 2011-2012 and takes regional ideas concerning Zoo Emmen as well as global visions into account. The research focuses partly on Zoo Emmen, its present attractions and visitors while also comparing and contrasting visions on the future in relationship to other international zoos in the world. In this way, remarkable experiences and ideas will be identified and in the light of them, it can serve as inspiration for stakeholders of zoos at large. The main research subject is a look at the future zoos in view of: The Zoo Experience – an international experience benchmark; The Zoo of the Future – a Scenario Planning approach towards the future; The virtual zoo - zoo’s in the internet domain.
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In dit rapport zijn vier scenario’s uitgewerkt. Elk van de scenario´s kan zich in de toekomst meer of minder ontvouwen. Deze vier scenario´s vormen de inspiratiepaden die elk verschillende kansen en belemmeringen in zich hebben en daarmee mogelijkheden voor de toekomst bieden. Per scenario wordt beschreven wat de essentiële verschillen per route zijn.
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Swarm planning is a theory and practical approach to deal with uncertain futures. By anticipating scenarios such as a ‘post-carbon’ world and a ‘pre-adaptive’ landscape, it offers an alternative pathway to prepare for medium-term incremental and step changes. The focus is on the regional scale with a planning process to move from an unstable state (i.e. due to external impacts of climate change) towards a state of higher adaptive capacity. It increases the flexibility of spatial systems in two ways: assisting change in spatial land use over time; and catalysing the emergence of autonomous and more resilient developments. Swarm planning theory is used in two pilot designs and compared with regular planning processes. The results are presented in the form of new landscapes: the ‘Zero-Fossil Region’, where the design provides a spatial framework for a complete renewable energy supply, and the ‘Net Carbon Capture Landscape’, in which adaptation and mitigation strategies are designed to become carbon positive. The comparison illuminates the potential advantage of swarm planning to tackle climate change threats. La planification en essaims est une théorie et une approche pratique visant à traiter des avenirs incertains. Au moyen de scénarios prospectifs tels que celui d'un monde « post-carbone » et d'un paysage « préadaptatif », elle offre une voie alternative pour se préparer à des changements progressifs ou radicaux à moyen terme. L'accent est mis sur l’échelle régionale, avec un processus de planification permettant de passer d'un état instable (c'est-à-dire dû aux incidences extérieures du changement climatique) à un état présentant une plus grande capacité adaptative. Cela accroît de deux manières la flexibilité des systèmes spatiaux : en favorisant le changement dans l'utilisation spatiale des terrains au fil du temps; et en catalysant l’émergence de développements autonomes et plus résilients. La théorie de la planification en essaims est utilisée dans deux conceptions pilotes et comparée aux processus de planification habituels. Les résultats sont présentés sous la forme de nouveaux paysages : la « Région Zéro Energie Fossile », dans laquelle la conception fournit un cadre spatial permettant un approvisionnement énergétique entièrement renouvelable, et le « Paysage à Séquestration Nette de Carbone », dans lequel des stratégies d'adaptation et d'atténuation sont conçues pour assurer un bilan carbone positif. Cette comparaison se révèle éclairante quant à l'avantage potentiel de la planification en essaims pour s'attaquer aux menaces posées par le changement climatique. Mots clés: adaptation capacité adaptative cadre bâti résilience conception spatiale planification en essaims incertitude
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Digitalization is gaining increasing attention in Higher Education (HE). The integrationof digital tools into instructional settings is particularly challenging, However, it offers manyopportunities to improve the learning process of students, especially in interdisciplinary teachingscenarios such as teaching sustainable usage of space and resources i.e. for the coastal zones and themarine areas. Worldwide, Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) and Integrated Coastal Zone Management(ICZM) are much needed approaches to manage and organize the increasing use of the sea andcoastal areas. Both are complex fields that are attracting more and more attention in interdisciplinaryHE. Correspondingly designed, the module ‘Planning and Management of Coastal Zones and SeaBasins’ at the University of Oldenburg, Germany, provides a case for integrating digital tools intoHE. In 2020, the digital serious game ‘MSP Challenge´ was used in an online learning format. Thisinteractive and collaborative tool supports informed decision making based on real and simulateddata, comparable to business (decision) processes based on environmental information systems(EIS). Therefore, the MSP Challenge game fosters not only the understanding of the complex topicbut additionally methodological skills which can be transferred to the usage EIS. While playing,students become able to (1) evaluate and simulate impacts of uses on coastal and marineenvironments, (2) describe the main interactions in ecosystems, (3) conceptualize information forsectoral or integrated MSP and (4) reflect on the role and use of data. In the presented case masterstudents studying “Water and Coastal Management” participated in the module. Moreover, thedigital serious game and the interdisciplinary topics of MSP and ICZM provides additionalopportunities to explore subtopics (e.g. IT-related) from other disciplinary perspectives.
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The general aim of this research project has been to examine this phenomenon of tourism flow switching and consider the factors driving the geopolitical instability that can compromise destination security. On a more practical level the research has also examined what the reactions of Dutch tourists are to security threats affecting their tourism decisions and looked at the development of preventive measures against attacks by destinations and travel organisations. Finally, the research on the regional geopolitics of the MENA and European areas have together with the attitudes of Dutch tourists towards destination security been used as inputs into a scenario planning process involving the steering group of tour operators who originally commissioned this research, as participants. This process has focussed on macro environmental analysis, identification of key uncertainties, and the development of resilient strategies for the future.
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