Estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) of an asset lies at the heart of prognostics and health management (PHM) of many operations-critical industries such as aviation. Mod- ern methods of RUL estimation adopt techniques from deep learning (DL). However, most of these contemporary tech- niques deliver only single-point estimates for the RUL without reporting on the confidence of the prediction. This practice usually provides overly confident predictions that can have severe consequences in operational disruptions or even safety. To address this issue, we propose a technique for uncertainty quantification (UQ) based on Bayesian deep learning (BDL). The hyperparameters of the framework are tuned using a novel bi-objective Bayesian optimization method with objectives the predictive performance and predictive uncertainty. The method also integrates the data pre-processing steps into the hyperparameter optimization (HPO) stage, models the RUL as a Weibull distribution, and returns the survival curves of the monitored assets to allow informed decision-making. We vali- date this method on the widely used C-MAPSS dataset against a single-objective HPO baseline that aggregates the two ob- jectives through the harmonic mean (HM). We demonstrate the existence of trade-offs between the predictive performance and the predictive uncertainty and observe that the bi-objective HPO returns a larger number of hyperparameter configurations compared to the single-objective baseline. Furthermore, we see that with the proposed approach, it is possible to configure models for RUL estimation that exhibit better or comparable performance to the single-objective baseline when validated on the test sets.
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This book is both a short introduction to the recent developments, challenges and opportunities in Aviation Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul(MRO), and at the same time, a presentation of the research focal areas and the key waypoints towards smarter and more sustainable MRO. Innovation and integration have always been key aspects of Aviation. Currently, evolutions in aircraft design, materials and production techniques are ahead of the MRO practices in use.This gap is creating demand for new knowledge to develop and operationalise adaptive, digital and sustainable MRO tools, applicable or integrated in modern aircraft systems and components.
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Design educators and industry partners are critical knowledge managers and co-drivers of change, and design graduate and post-graduate students can act as catalysts for new ideas, energy, and perspectives. In this article, we will explore how design advances industry development through the lens of a longitudinal inquiry into activities carried out as part of a Dutch design faculty-industry collaboration. We analyze seventy-five (75) Master of Science (MSc) thesis outcomes and seven (7) Doctorate (PhD) thesis outcomes (five in progress) to identify ways that design activities have influenced advances in the Dutch aviation industry over time. Based on these findings, we then introduce an Industry Design Framework, which organizes the industry/design relationship as a three-layered system. This novel approach to engaging industry in design research and design education has immediate practical value and theoretical significance, both in the present and for future research. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sheji.2019.07.003 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/christine-de-lille-8039372/
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