This research investigates growth inhibitors for smart services driven by condition-based maintenance (CBM). Despite the fast rise of Industry 4.0 technologies, such as smart sensoring, internet of things, and machine learning (ML), smart services have failed to keep pace. Combined, these technologies enable CBM to achieve the lean goal of high reliability and low waste for industrial equipment. Equipment located at customers throughout the world can be monitored and maintained by manufacturers and service providers, but so far industry uptake has been slow. The contributions of this study are twofold. First, it uncovers industry settings that impede the use of equipment failure data needed to train ML algorithms to predict failures and use these predictions to trigger maintenance. These empirical settings, drawn from four global machine equipment manufacturers, include either under- or over-maintenance (i.e., either too much or too little periodic maintenance). Second, formal analysis of a system dynamics model based on these empirical settings reveals a sweet spot of industry settings in which such inhibitors are absent. Companies that fall outside this sweet spot need to follow specific transition paths to reach it. This research discusses these paths, from both a research and practice perspective.
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Optimization of aviation maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) operations has been of high interest in recent years for both the knowledge institutions and the industrial community as a total of approximately $70 billion has been spent on MRO activities in 2018 which represents around 10% of an airline’s annual operational cost (IATA, 2019). Moreover, the aircraft MRO tasks vary from routine inspections to heavy overhauls and are typically characterized by unpredictable process times and material requirements. Especially nowadays due to the unprecedent COVID-19 crisis, the aviation sector is facing significant challenges, and the MRO companies strive to strengthen their competitive position and respond to the increasing demand for more efficient, cost-effective, and sustainable processes. Currently, most maintenance strategies employ preventive maintenance as an industrial standard, which is based on fixed and predetermined schedules. Preventive maintenance is a long-time preferred strategy, due to increased flight safety and relatively simple implementation (Phillips et al., 2010). However, its main drawback stems from the fact that the actual time of failure and the replacement interval of a component are hard to predict resulting in an inevitable suboptimal utilization of material and labor. This has two repercussions: first, the reduced availability of assets, the reduced capacity of maintenance facilities, and the increased costs for both the MRO provider and the operator. Second, the increased waste from an environmental standpoint, as the suboptimal use of assets, is also associated with wasted remaining lifetime for aircraft parts which are replaced, while this isn’t yet necessary (e.g., Nguyen et al., 2019).The recently introduced, condition-based maintenance (CBM) and predictive maintenance (PdM) data-driven strategies aim to reduce maintenance costs, maxi-mize availability, and contribute to sustainable operations by offering tailored pro-grams that can potentially result in optimally planned, just-in-time maintenance meaning reduction in material waste and unneeded inspections.
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Data-driven condition-based maintenance (CBM) and predictive maintenance (PdM) strategies have emerged over recent years and aim at minimizing the aviation maintenance costs and environmental impact by the diagnosis and prognosis of aircraft systems. As the use of data and relevant algorithms is essential to AI-based gas turbine diagnostics, there are different technical, operational, and regulatory challenges that need to be tackled in order for the aeronautical industry to be able to exploit their full potential. In this work, the machine learning (ML) method of the generalised additive model (GAM) is used in order to predict the evolution of an aero engine’s exhaust gas temperature (EGT). Three different continuous synthetic data sets developed by NASA are employed, known as New Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation (N-CMAPSS), with increasing complexity in engine deterioration. The results show that the GAM can be predict the evolution of the EGT with high accuracy when using several input features that resemble the types of physical sensors installed in aero gas turbines currently in operation. As the GAM offers good interpretability, this case study is used to discuss the different data attributes a data set needs to have in order to build trust and move towards certifiable models in the future.
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