Basic motor competencies (BMC) belong to the key learning goals of Physical Education (PE) in primary school curricula in Europe. These competencies are necessary to participate in sports inside and outside of school. Children should therefore achieve age-adequate BMC in PE and any need for educational motor support should be identified at an early stage. Studies in German-speaking countries showed that various endogenous and exogenous factors are related to children’s BMC, but international studies are missing. In the present cross-sectional study, the two BMC areas object movement (OM) and self-movement (SM) as well as the associations with endogenous (age, sex, body mass index) and exogenous (participation in extracurricular sports) factors were investigated in 1721 8‑ to 10-year-old primary school children from nine European countries. Over 25% of the children showed need for educational motor support in OM and over 20% in SM. BMC levels differed significantly between the country-specific subsamples. In all subsamples, boys showed better performances in OM, while girls scored better in SM. Older children performed better in OM and SM than younger children. Higher body mass index predicted lower BMC scores in both competence areas. Participation in ball sports was positively associated with OM and SM, and individual sports participation was a significant predictor of SM. As exogenous and endogenous variables consistently predicted BMC in all subsamples, there must be other reasons for variation in BMC levels. Future studies should address country- and school-specific characteristics like content and amount of PE. Motorische Basiskompetenzen (basic motor competencies; BMC) gehören zu den wichtigsten Lernzielen des Sportunterrichts in den Lehrplänen der europäischen Grundschulen. Diese Kompetenzen sind notwendig, um innerhalb und außerhalb der Schule Sport treiben zu können. Kinder sollten daher im Sportunterricht altersgemäße BMC erwerben und etwaiger Förderbedarf sollte frühzeitig erkannt werden. Studien im deutschsprachigen Raum zeigten, dass verschiedene endogene und exogene Faktoren mit den BMC der Kinder zusammenhängen, jedoch fehlt es bisher an internationalen Studien. In der vorliegenden Querschnittsstudie wurden die beiden BMC-Bereiche Etwas-bewegen (object movement; OM) und Sich-bewegen (self-movement; SM) sowie deren Zusammenhänge mit endogenen (Alter, Geschlecht, Body-Mass-Index) und exogenen (Teilnahme an außerschulischem Sport) Faktoren bei 1721 8–10-jährigen Grundschulkindern aus neun europäischen Ländern untersucht. Über 25 % der Kinder wiesen Förderbedarf im Bereich OM auf und über 20 % im Bereich SM. Die BMC-Werte unterschieden sich signifikant zwischen den länderspezifischen Stichproben. In allen Teilstichproben zeigten die Jungen bessere Leistungen im OM, während die Mädchen im SM besser abschnitten. Ältere Kinder erbrachten bessere Leistungen als jüngere Kinder. Ein höherer Body-Mass-Index prognostizierte niedrigere BMC-Werte in beiden Kompetenzbereichen. Die Teilnahme an Ballsportarten stand in einem positiven Zusammenhang mit OM und SM, und die Teilnahme an Individualsportarten war ein signifikanter Prädiktor für SM. Da die exogenen und endogenen Variablen die BMC in allen Stichproben übereinstimmend vorhersagten, muss es andere Gründe für die Unterschiede im BMC-Niveau geben. Künftige Studien sollten länder- und schulspezifische Merkmale wie Inhalt und Umfang des Sportunterrichts untersuchen.
This paper investigates the application of neural basis expansion analysis with exogenous variables (NBEATSx) in the prediction of daily stock realized volatility for various time steps. It compares NBEATSx’s forecasting accuracy and robustness with several commonly used models, namely Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) network, Temporal Neural Network (TCN), HAR, GARCH, and GJR-GARCH models. In this research, a total of six distinct stock indexes, three error measures, and four statistical tests are used, while three robustness tests are conducted to verify the outcomes of this paper. The findings of this research show that NBEATSx consistently yields statistically more accurate and robust forecasts than the other considered models. On average, NBEATSx generates forecasts that are respectively 13% and 8% more accurate for medium-term and long-term forecasting. Additionally, it produces forecasts that are respectively 43%, 60%, and 59% more robust for short-term, medium-term, and long-term forecasting. Yet, it should be noted that the superiority of NBEATSx in terms of forecast accuracy is not evident when applied to stock indexes from developing countries.
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In 2005 and 2006, almost sixty Dutch National Sport Federations (NSFs) participated in a special program for creating a marketing strategy for the next four years. This program was initiated and organized by NOC*NSF (the Dutch Olympic Umbrella Sports Organization). The NSFs had to joint the project to receive funds. For most of them it was the first time they seriously analyzed the market with the aim of developing new programs. The purpose of this paper is to explore to what extent Dutch NSFs are capable to change their structures to become more market oriented and more market responsive in order to write strategic plans. The changed structures are investigated using the "institutional theory" (Tolbert & Zucker, 1996) and are explained by exogenous (market context and institutional context) and endogenous (interests, values, power dependencies, and capacity for action) dynamics from the neo-institutionalist framework (Greenwood & Hinings, 1996). In 2005 NSFs were expected to be in a pre-institutionalized stage, i.e. they were supposed to develop new organizational structures in response to specific problems (Kikulis, 2000). Now, approximately 1½ years after finishing their strategies, the question arises whether they have reached the semi-institutional stage, i.e. whether the new structures or actions are diffused across organizations, yet still subject to change and whether old structures are yet eroding (Kikulis, 2000). Methods Studying the intended structural change of NSFs requires an in-depth study of their social reality and the reactions and interpretations of involved actors, including their applied meanings to certain situations. Greenwood & Hinings (1996) plead for detailed comparative case-studies when studying institutional changes. Therefore three NSFs has been selected: The Royal Dutch Korfball Federation (KorfFed); The Royal Dutch Billiards Federation (BillFed); and the Dutch Jeu de Boules Federation (JeuFed). These three federations differ on size, amount of housed sports, number of associated clubs, sorts of intermediary decision making bodies, employed FTE's, and more. Therefore it is expected that the tempo of institutionalization of the new, market oriented, structures, will differ among them. Sugden & Tomlinson (2002) developed a multi-method style of qualitative research for making sense of the deep, inside information below the surface of everyday life. They call it the "Brighton method. Applying the Brighton method for this research implies that the three cases will be studied with respect to their history, their present marketing actions, their results and the changes in their organization. In-depth interviews, document analysis (policy plans, marketing plans and more), and where possible observations and participations are used to create a critical and investigative view of the organizations in change. Results The KorfFed used the marketing program to further develop existing programs. Although the outcomes of these programs were not new, the program has opened the eyes of the president, director and staff members. They are now conscious of the urgency of a market orientation, and a marketing orientation (a marketing position has already been introduced), and they see opportunities in attracting non-competition playing korfball players. They have, however, not yet reached the phase of semi-institutionalization of the market oriented structures. This can be concluded from the following: - The organization still has an ad-hoc character; - Some board members still make decisions based on their own insights rather than on information from the professional part of the organization; - Decisions to start programs are still grounded on subsidy possibilities rather than on market possibilities. Interest dissatisfaction and power dependencies are the main dynamics that form barriers in the planned organizational change. The BillFed is a federation that covers four disciplines, i.e. pool, snooker, carom, and billiard 3 cushions. The federation used to act upon these four disciplines. The marketing program has made clear that the BillFed should act upon target groups instead of on these disciplines. Therefore, the federation created a vision to reach youth, young adults, as also elderly people. Carrying out this new vision requires a market orientated structure (focus on target groups) instead of an internal orientated structure (focus on discipline groups). This new vision is created on an upper level (general board together with professional staff) in the organization. This federation also introduced a professional marketing position. Unfortunately, the underlying layers remain slightly passive and are not willing to work along the new structures, which mean that the new structures have not been diffused across the whole organization. Interest dissatisfaction, value commitments and power dependencies are the problematic dynamics. The JeuFed used to have a strong competition and tournament (internal) orientation, while many jeu-de-boules players play the game just for fun. The marketing program has created the insight that the just-for-fun players are also an important target group. Hence, 3 projects are developed to make club membership more attractive for all jeu-de-boules players. Since the federation never worked with projects before, they just found out that implementing projects such as these requires new structures. The JeuFed has just arrived in the pre-institutionalized phase, still far away from the semi-institutionalized chapter. Power dependencies and a lack of capacity for change are influencing dynamics in this case. Discussion Although it is already 1½ years ago that Dutch NSFs finished their marketing program, in none of the described cases the new structures have reached the semi-institutional stage. These new structures or actions are not yet diffused across the organizations, and the old structures are not eroding. In all three cases another combination of endogenous dynamics are influencing the process of organizational change. Continuing research is needed to find out whether these federations will ever reach the next stage of institutionalization and which dynamics will play an important role.
