In dit rapport worden 4 toekomstscenario's geschetst voor de ontwikkeling van de binnenstad van Leeuwarden.
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A group of Dutch teachers, as part of their Master’s programme, developed a game that allows teachers to break free from their day-to-day affairs and reflect on futures by designing scenarios about the future of their school. In this game-based approach the journey of scenario exploration is composed of seven steps: (1) choice of a theme and timeframe, (2) selection of key dilemmas on which two scenario axes will be based, (3) understanding the content and context of a “matrix” provided for the game, (4) setting up scenario groups, (5) developing four scenarios, (6) sharing scenarios, and (7) reflection on the scenarios.
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NECSTouR workshop and presentation for board of directors
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A damage estimation exercise has been carried out using the building stock inventory and population database of the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality and selected European earthquake loss estimation packages: KOERILOSS, SELENA, ESCENARIS, SIGE, and DBELA. The input ground-motions, common to all models, correspond to a “credible worst case scenario” involving the rupture of the four segments of the Main Marmara Fault closest to Istanbul in a Mw 7.5 earthquake. The aim of the exercise is to assess the applicability of the selected software packages to earthquake loss estimation in the context of rapid post-earthquake response in European urban centers. The results in terms of predicted building damage and social losses are critically compared amongst each other, as well as with the results of previous scenario-based earthquake loss assessments carried out for the study area. The key methodological aspects and data needs for European rapid post-earthquake loss estimation are thus identified.
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In dit rapport zijn vier scenario’s uitgewerkt. Elk van de scenario´s kan zich in de toekomst meer of minder ontvouwen. Deze vier scenario´s vormen de inspiratiepaden die elk verschillende kansen en belemmeringen in zich hebben en daarmee mogelijkheden voor de toekomst bieden. Per scenario wordt beschreven wat de essentiële verschillen per route zijn.
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In January 2020, Greece, the Republic of Cyprus and Israel signed an agreement to construct the EastMed pipeline, a 1900-kilometer undersea pipeline designed to transport gas from the offshore deposits in the Leviathan field of the southeastern Mediterranean to continental Europe. Designed as Project of Common Interest (PCI) by European Commission since 2013, this pipeline aims to diversify the EU’s energy source, potentially reducing reliance on Russian gas. While progress had stalled, the Russian invasion of Ukraine reignited hopes for its construction. Nonetheless, the United States raised doubts about its viability and distanced itself from what it reportedly labeled a “contentious energy scheme”. Our report aims to assess the prospects of the EastMed pipeline, drawing insights from the energy security scenario analysis by the World Energy Council, Shell, and the Clingendael Institute. Beginning with background information on the project’s geological aspects, EU-driven regulatory framework, key stakeholders, and estimated costs, we’ll craft scenarios around three central storylines: 1) Market and Institutions, focusing on stable geopolitics and regional cooperation, 2) Regions and Empires, emphasizing Geopolitical Tensions, and, 3) Environmental Challenges.
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DBELA is a Displacement-Based Earthquake Loss Assessment methodology for urban areas which relates the displacement capacity of the building stock to the displacement demand from earthquake scenarios. The building stock is modeled as a random population of building classes with varying geometrical and material properties. The period of vibration of each building in the random population is calculated using a simplified equation based on the height of the building and building type, whilst the displacement capacity at different limit states is predicted using simple equations which are a function of the randomly simulated geometrical and material properties. The displacement capacity of each building is then compared to the displacement demand obtained, from an over-damped displacement spectrum, using its period of vibration; the proportion of buildings which exceed each damage state can thus be estimated. DBELA has been calibrated to the Turkish building stock following the collection of a large database of structural characteristics of buildings from the northern Marmara region. The probabilistic distributions for each of the structural characteristics (e.g. story height, steel properties etc.) have been defined using the aforementioned database. The methodology has then been applied to predict preliminary damage distributions and social losses for the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality for a Mw 7.5 scenario earthquake.
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By use of a literature review and an environmental scan four plausible future scenarios will be created, based on the research question: How could the future of backpack tourism look like in 2030, and how could tourism businesses anticipate on the changing demand. The scenarios, which allow one to ‘think out of the box’, will eventually be translated into recommendations towards the tourism sector and therefore can create a future proof company strategy.
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